Liga PortugalCalibrated

Alverca vs Casa Pia

Sunday 8 November at 01:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Alverca win	53.0%	52.6%	36.7%
Draw	24.8%	26.5%	28.5%
Casa Pia win	22.2%	20.9%	34.8%
Alverca or draw	77.8%	—	65.2%
Alverca or Casa Pia	75.2%	—	71.5%
Draw or Casa Pia	47.0%	—	63.2%
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	—	67.3%
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	—	32.7%
Over 2.5 goals	47.4%	46.9%	41.3%
Under 2.5 goals	52.6%	53.1%	58.7%
Over 3.5 goals	25.7%	—	21.0%
Under 3.5 goals	74.3%	—	79.0%
Both teams to score	49.2%	—	47.5%
Not both teams to score	50.8%	—	52.5%
Alverca to score	80.2%	—	67.7%
Casa Pia to score	61.4%	—	66.0%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 19:38 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:22 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7.7%	7.3%	3.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%
1	12.4%	11.8%	5.6%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
2	10.0%	9.5%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
3	5.4%	5.1%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	2.2%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–012.4%
2.1–111.8%
3.2–010.0%
4.2–19.5%
5.0–07.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.95. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

AlvercaLLWWWL

Scored 9 · Conceded 6

Mon 2 Novat SL Benfica0–1xG 0.42–1.92
Sat 24 Octat Arouca0–1xG 0.40–1.14
Mon 12 Octat Famalicao4–1xG 2.50–0.40
Sat 19 Septat Rio Ave1–0xG 2.40–0.47
Sat 12 Septat Nacional3–1xG 1.20–2.22
Sat 5 Septat Sporting Braga1–2xG 1.17–2.11

Casa PiaLWWWLW

Scored 7 · Conceded 4

Fri 30 Octat Sp Lisbon0–2xG 0.67–2.03
Sat 24 Octat Estrela Amadora2–0xG 0.96–1.90
Sat 24 Octat Estrela2–0xG 0.79–1.69
Sun 18 Octat Alpendorada1–0
Sat 10 Octat Santa Clara0–1xG 0.38–0.76
Sun 20 Septat Estoril2–1xG 2.11–1.25

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Alverca: +0.53 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 9 on 8.09 xG, conceded 6 on 8.26 xG against.

Casa Pia: +0.94 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 6 on 4.91 xG, conceded 4 on 7.62 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Alverca win

53.0%

52.6%

36.7%

Draw

24.8%

26.5%

28.5%

Casa Pia win

22.2%

20.9%

34.8%

Alverca or draw

77.8%

—

65.2%

Alverca or Casa Pia

75.2%

—

71.5%

Draw or Casa Pia

47.0%

—

63.2%

Over 1.5 goals

72.7%

—

67.3%

Under 1.5 goals

27.3%

—

32.7%

Over 2.5 goals

47.4%

46.9%

41.3%

Under 2.5 goals

52.6%

53.1%

58.7%

Over 3.5 goals

25.7%

—

21.0%

Under 3.5 goals

74.3%

—

79.0%

Both teams to score

49.2%

—

47.5%

Not both teams to score

50.8%

—

52.5%

Alverca to score

80.2%

—

67.7%

Casa Pia to score

61.4%

—

66.0%

7.7%

7.3%

3.5%

1.1%

0.3%

0.0%

12.4%

11.8%

5.6%

1.8%

0.4%

0.1%

10.0%

9.5%

4.5%

1.4%

0.3%

0.1%

5.4%

5.1%

2.4%

0.8%

0.2%

0.0%

2.2%

2.1%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%