Liga PortugalCalibrated

Estrela Amadora vs Benfica

Monday 9 November at 03:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Estrela Amadora win	13.3%	7.6%	12.9%
Draw	17.3%	13.9%	19.0%
Benfica win	69.5%	78.5%	68.0%
Estrela Amadora or draw	30.5%	—	31.9%
Estrela Amadora or Benfica	82.7%	—	81.0%
Draw or Benfica	86.7%	—	87.0%
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	—	80.8%
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	—	19.2%
Over 2.5 goals	66.0%	65.5%	59.8%
Under 2.5 goals	34.0%	34.4%	40.2%
Over 3.5 goals	44.1%	—	37.5%
Under 3.5 goals	55.9%	—	62.5%
Both teams to score	56.6%	—	50.4%
Not both teams to score	43.4%	—	49.6%
Estrela Amadora to score	62.1%	—	46.1%
Benfica to score	91.2%	—	88.0%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 2 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:37 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:42 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.3%	8.1%	9.9%	8.0%	4.8%	2.3%
1	3.2%	7.9%	9.6%	7.7%	4.7%	2.3%
2	1.6%	3.8%	4.6%	3.8%	2.3%	1.1%
3	0.5%	1.2%	1.5%	1.2%	0.7%	0.4%
4	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.0–29.9%
2.1–29.6%
3.0–18.1%
4.0–38.0%
5.1–17.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.43. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Estrela AmadoraLLWLLD

Scored 6 · Conceded 11

Sat 31 Octat Moreirense1–2xG 0.92–0.55
Sat 24 Octat Casa Pia0–2xG 1.90–0.96
Sat 17 Octat Fazendense2–1
Sun 11 Octat Arouca0–1xG 1.51–0.83
Sun 20 Septat Academico Viseu0–2xG 1.30–1.88
Mon 14 Septat Rio Ave3–3xG 2.73–1.28

BenficaWWWWWW

Scored 16 · Conceded 4

Thu 5 Novat Lech Poznan3–1xG 3.49–0.37
Mon 2 Novat Alverca1–0xG 1.92–0.42
Mon 26 Octat Santa Clara2–1xG 2.03–1.86
Thu 22 Octat Omonia Nicosia4–1xG 2.83–0.74
Thu 15 Octat Celtic4–1xG 2.81–1.61
Sun 11 Octat Vitoria Guimaraes2–0xG 2.09–0.65

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Estrela Amadora: −1.77 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 4 on 8.36 xG, conceded 10 on 5.50 xG against.

Benfica: +0.42 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 16 on 15.16 xG, conceded 4 on 5.65 xG against.

Note: Estrela Amadora are underperforming against xG while Benfica are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Estrela Amadora win

13.3%

7.6%

12.9%

Draw

17.3%

13.9%

19.0%

Benfica win

69.5%

78.5%

68.0%

Estrela Amadora or draw

30.5%

—

31.9%

Estrela Amadora or Benfica

82.7%

—

81.0%

Draw or Benfica

86.7%

—

87.0%

Over 1.5 goals

85.3%

—

80.8%

Under 1.5 goals

14.7%

—

19.2%

Over 2.5 goals

66.0%

65.5%

59.8%

Under 2.5 goals

34.0%

34.4%

40.2%

Over 3.5 goals

44.1%

—

37.5%

Under 3.5 goals

55.9%

—

62.5%

Both teams to score

56.6%

—

50.4%

Not both teams to score

43.4%

—

49.6%

Estrela Amadora to score

62.1%

—

46.1%

Benfica to score

91.2%

—

88.0%

3.3%

8.1%

9.9%

8.0%

4.8%

2.3%

3.2%

7.9%

9.6%

7.7%

4.7%

2.3%

1.6%

3.8%

4.6%

3.8%

2.3%

1.1%

0.5%

1.2%

1.5%

1.2%

0.7%

0.4%

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%