Liga PortugalCalibrated

Estoril vs Marítimo

Sunday 8 November at 22:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Estoril win	47.8%	45.7%	43.0%
Draw	22.8%	26.7%	26.2%
Marítimo win	29.4%	27.6%	30.8%
Estoril or draw	70.6%	—	69.2%
Estoril or Marítimo	77.2%	—	73.8%
Draw or Marítimo	52.2%	—	57.0%
Over 1.5 goals	83.2%	—	74.1%
Under 1.5 goals	16.8%	—	25.9%
Over 2.5 goals	62.4%	50.0%	49.5%
Under 2.5 goals	37.6%	50.0%	50.5%
Over 3.5 goals	40.2%	—	27.6%
Under 3.5 goals	59.8%	—	72.4%
Both teams to score	63.1%	—	54.0%
Not both teams to score	36.9%	—	46.0%
Estoril to score	83.9%	—	74.3%
Marítimo to score	75.2%	—	66.2%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 4 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:31 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.0%	5.6%	3.9%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
1	7.3%	10.2%	7.1%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
2	6.7%	9.3%	6.5%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
3	4.1%	5.7%	3.9%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.9%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
5	0.7%	0.9%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–110.2%
2.2–19.3%
3.1–07.3%
4.1–27.1%
5.2–06.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.39. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

EstorilLLLLLL

Scored 3 · Conceded 13

Sat 31 Octat FC Porto0–4xG 1.00–3.38
Sun 25 Octat Moreirense1–3xG 2.06–1.23
Sat 10 Octat Academico Viseu1–2xG 1.21–1.04
Sun 20 Septat Casa Pia1–2xG 1.25–2.11
Mon 14 Septat Sporting Braga0–1xG 0.82–1.98
Mon 14 Septat Sp Braga0–1xG 0.75–1.79

MarítimoLLLWLD

Scored 4 · Conceded 16

Sun 1 Novat Santa Clara0–2xG 2.04–0.91
Fri 23 Octat Vitoria Guimaraes0–5xG 0.82–2.02
Fri 23 Octat Guimaraes0–5xG 0.52–1.78
Sun 18 Octat Alcochetense2–1
Sat 10 Octat FC Porto1–2xG 0.20–2.32
Sat 19 Septat Gil Vicente1–1xG 0.94–1.47

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Estoril: −0.93 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 3 on 7.08 xG, conceded 13 on 11.52 xG against.

Marítimo: −1.80 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 2 on 4.53 xG, conceded 15 on 8.51 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Estoril win

47.8%

45.7%

43.0%

Draw

22.8%

26.7%

26.2%

Marítimo win

29.4%

27.6%

30.8%

Estoril or draw

70.6%

—

69.2%

Estoril or Marítimo

77.2%

—

73.8%

Draw or Marítimo

52.2%

—

57.0%

Over 1.5 goals

83.2%

—

74.1%

Under 1.5 goals

16.8%

—

25.9%

Over 2.5 goals

62.4%

50.0%

49.5%

Under 2.5 goals

37.6%

50.0%

50.5%

Over 3.5 goals

40.2%

—

27.6%

Under 3.5 goals

59.8%

—

72.4%

Both teams to score

63.1%

—

54.0%

Not both teams to score

36.9%

—

46.0%

Estoril to score

83.9%

—

74.3%

Marítimo to score

75.2%

—

66.2%

4.0%

5.6%

3.9%

1.8%

0.6%

0.2%

7.3%

10.2%

7.1%

3.3%

1.1%

0.3%

6.7%

9.3%

6.5%

3.0%

1.0%

0.3%

4.1%

5.7%

3.9%

1.8%

0.6%

0.2%

1.9%

2.6%

1.8%

0.8%

0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

0.9%

0.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%