Liga PortugalCalibrated

Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente

Sunday 8 November at 22:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Santa Clara win	37.9%	42.5%	37.5%
Draw	31.5%	30.6%	27.9%
Gil Vicente win	30.7%	26.8%	34.5%
Santa Clara or draw	69.3%	—	65.5%
Santa Clara or Gil Vicente	68.5%	—	72.1%
Draw or Gil Vicente	62.1%	—	62.4%
Over 1.5 goals	57.4%	—	69.5%
Under 1.5 goals	42.6%	—	30.4%
Over 2.5 goals	30.3%	37.5%	43.5%
Under 2.5 goals	69.7%	62.5%	56.4%
Over 3.5 goals	13.0%	—	22.8%
Under 3.5 goals	87.0%	—	77.2%
Both teams to score	38.0%	—	49.7%
Not both teams to score	62.0%	—	50.3%
Santa Clara to score	64.3%	—	69.1%
Gil Vicente to score	59.1%	—	67.0%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 6 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:31 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14.6%	13.0%	5.8%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
1	15.0%	13.4%	6.0%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
2	7.7%	6.9%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
3	2.7%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–015.0%
2.0–014.6%
3.1–113.4%
4.0–113.0%
5.2–07.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.03 – 0.90. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Santa ClaraWLWDDW

Scored 6 · Conceded 3

Sun 1 Novat Maritimo2–0xG 0.91–2.04
Mon 26 Octat SL Benfica1–2xG 1.86–2.03
Sat 10 Octat Casa Pia1–0xG 0.76–0.38
Sun 20 Septat Sporting Braga0–0xG 0.82–0.67
Sun 20 Septat Sp Braga0–0xG 1.04–0.50
Sun 13 Septat Arouca2–1xG 1.37–1.02

Gil VicenteDDLWWW

Scored 5 · Conceded 3

Mon 2 Novat Vitoria Guimaraes0–0xG 0.92–0.47
Mon 2 Novat Guimaraes0–0xG 0.65–0.42
Sat 24 Octat FC Porto0–1xG 0.51–1.07
Mon 19 Octat Sporting Braga2–1xG 1.76–1.06
Mon 19 Octat Sp Braga2–1xG 1.52–1.35
Fri 9 Octat Moreirense1–0xG 1.67–1.16

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Santa Clara: +0.48 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 6 on 6.76 xG, conceded 3 on 6.64 xG against.

Gil Vicente: +0.08 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 5 on 7.03 xG, conceded 3 on 5.53 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Santa Clara win

37.9%

42.5%

37.5%

Draw

31.5%

30.6%

27.9%

Gil Vicente win

30.7%

26.8%

34.5%

Santa Clara or draw

69.3%

—

65.5%

Santa Clara or Gil Vicente

68.5%

—

72.1%

Draw or Gil Vicente

62.1%

—

62.4%

Over 1.5 goals

57.4%

—

69.5%

Under 1.5 goals

42.6%

—

30.4%

Over 2.5 goals

30.3%

37.5%

43.5%

Under 2.5 goals

69.7%

62.5%

56.4%

Over 3.5 goals

13.0%

—

22.8%

Under 3.5 goals

87.0%

—

77.2%

Both teams to score

38.0%

—

49.7%

Not both teams to score

62.0%

—

50.3%

Santa Clara to score

64.3%

—

69.1%

Gil Vicente to score

59.1%

—

67.0%

14.6%

13.0%

5.8%

1.7%

0.4%

0.1%

15.0%

13.4%

6.0%

1.8%

0.4%

0.1%

7.7%

6.9%

3.1%

0.9%

0.2%

0.0%

2.7%

2.4%

1.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%