Liga PortugalCalibrated

Vitória Guimarães vs Porto

Monday 9 November at 01:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Vitória Guimarães win	18.0%	18.6%	29.6%
Draw	23.4%	23.8%	27.6%
Porto win	58.6%	57.6%	42.7%
Vitória Guimarães or draw	41.4%	—	57.3%
Vitória Guimarães or Porto	76.6%	—	72.3%
Draw or Porto	82.0%	—	70.3%
Over 1.5 goals	73.2%	—	73.1%
Under 1.5 goals	26.8%	—	26.9%
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	52.8%	48.3%
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	47.2%	51.7%
Over 3.5 goals	26.4%	—	26.1%
Under 3.5 goals	73.6%	—	73.8%
Both teams to score	47.3%	—	51.6%
Not both teams to score	52.7%	—	48.4%
Vitória Guimarães to score	57.3%	—	64.2%
Porto to score	82.6%	—	74.0%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 4 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:34 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7.4%	13.0%	11.4%	6.6%	2.9%	1.0%
1	6.3%	11.1%	9.7%	5.6%	2.5%	0.9%
2	2.7%	4.7%	4.1%	2.4%	1.0%	0.4%
3	0.8%	1.3%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1.0–113.0%
2.0–211.4%
3.1–111.1%
4.1–29.7%
5.0–07.4%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.75. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Vitória GuimarãesDWWLDL

Scored 8 · Conceded 5

Mon 2 Novat Gil Vicente0–0xG 0.47–0.92
Fri 23 Octat Maritimo5–0xG 2.02–0.82
Sat 17 Octat Recreativa de Lamelas1–0
Sun 11 Octat SL Benfica0–2xG 0.65–2.09
Sun 20 Septat Moreirense1–1xG 1.19–0.48
Sat 12 Septat Academico Viseu1–2xG 2.11–2.19

PortoWWWLLW

Scored 13 · Conceded 6

Wed 4 Novat SSC Napoli4–1xG 2.91–1.57
Sat 31 Octat Estoril4–0xG 3.38–1.00
Sat 24 Octat Gil Vicente1–0xG 1.07–0.51
Tue 20 Octat PSV Eindhoven0–1xG 1.55–2.24
Wed 14 Octat Real Betis2–3xG 1.08–1.97
Sat 10 Octat Maritimo2–1xG 2.32–0.20

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Vitória Guimarães: +0.41 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 7 on 6.45 xG, conceded 5 on 6.49 xG against.

Porto: +0.36 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 13 on 12.32 xG, conceded 6 on 7.48 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Vitória Guimarães win

18.0%

18.6%

29.6%

Draw

23.4%

23.8%

27.6%

Porto win

58.6%

57.6%

42.7%

Vitória Guimarães or draw

41.4%

—

57.3%

Vitória Guimarães or Porto

76.6%

—

72.3%

Draw or Porto

82.0%

—

70.3%

Over 1.5 goals

73.2%

—

73.1%

Under 1.5 goals

26.8%

—

26.9%

Over 2.5 goals

48.1%

52.8%

48.3%

Under 2.5 goals

51.9%

47.2%

51.7%

Over 3.5 goals

26.4%

—

26.1%

Under 3.5 goals

73.6%

—

73.8%

Both teams to score

47.3%

—

51.6%

Not both teams to score

52.7%

—

48.4%

Vitória Guimarães to score

57.3%

—

64.2%

Porto to score

82.6%

—

74.0%

7.4%

13.0%

11.4%

6.6%

2.9%

1.0%

6.3%

11.1%

9.7%

5.6%

2.5%

0.9%

2.7%

4.7%

4.1%

2.4%

1.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.3%

1.2%

0.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%