BundesligaPartial

FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Sunday 8 November at 21:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
FC Köln win	31.2%	23.3%	23.7%
Draw	22.1%	22.0%	23.3%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win	46.7%	54.7%	53.0%
FC Köln or draw	53.3%	—	47.0%
FC Köln or Bayer 04 Leverkusen	77.9%	—	76.7%
Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen	68.8%	—	76.3%
Over 1.5 goals	85.7%	—	79.4%
Under 1.5 goals	14.3%	—	20.6%
Over 2.5 goals	66.6%	66.7%	58.6%
Under 2.5 goals	33.4%	33.3%	41.4%
Over 3.5 goals	44.8%	—	37.6%
Under 3.5 goals	55.2%	—	62.4%
Both teams to score	66.6%	—	58.0%
Not both teams to score	33.4%	—	42.0%
FC Köln to score	78.3%	—	60.2%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score	85.1%	—	80.9%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 1 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:35 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:30 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.2%	6.2%	5.9%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
1	4.9%	9.4%	9.0%	5.7%	2.7%	1.0%
2	3.8%	7.2%	6.8%	4.3%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.9%	3.7%	3.5%	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.7%	1.4%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%
5	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–19.4%
2.1–29.0%
3.2–17.2%
4.2–26.8%
5.0–16.2%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.90. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league is partly calibrated — treat its numbers with care.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

FC KölnDWDLWW

Scored 10 · Conceded 4

Sun 1 Novat 1. FC Union Berlin1–1xG 1.12–0.74
Tue 27 Octat 1. FC Union Berlin5–0xG 2.27–1.22
Sat 24 Octat FC Schalke 040–0xG 1.00–0.73
Fri 16 Octat Eintracht Frankfurt0–1xG 0.88–1.61
Sun 11 Octat Borussia Monchengladbach2–1xG 1.32–1.17
Sun 11 Octat Borussia M'gladbach2–1xG 1.71–1.30

Bayer 04 LeverkusenLLWLWW

Scored 11 · Conceded 11

Thu 5 Novat Olympique Marseille0–1xG 1.31–0.72
Sat 31 Octat VfB Stuttgart2–4xG 2.29–2.44
Wed 28 Octat 1. FC Nurnberg5–2xG 3.50–1.17
Sun 25 Octat TSG Hoffenheim0–3xG 0.70–3.29
Thu 22 Octat OFI2–0xG 2.97–0.28
Sun 18 Octat SC Freiburg2–1xG 1.52–1.12

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

FC Köln: +0.74 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 10 on 8.31 xG, conceded 4 on 6.77 xG against.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: −0.55 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 11 on 12.29 xG, conceded 11 on 9.02 xG against.

Note: FC Köln are overperforming against xG while Bayer 04 Leverkusen are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

FC Köln win

31.2%

23.3%

23.7%

Draw

22.1%

22.0%

23.3%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen win

46.7%

54.7%

53.0%

FC Köln or draw

53.3%

—

47.0%

FC Köln or Bayer 04 Leverkusen

77.9%

—

76.7%

Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen

68.8%

—

76.3%

Over 1.5 goals

85.7%

—

79.4%

Under 1.5 goals

14.3%

—

20.6%

Over 2.5 goals

66.6%

66.7%

58.6%

Under 2.5 goals

33.4%

33.3%

41.4%

Over 3.5 goals

44.8%

—

37.6%

Under 3.5 goals

55.2%

—

62.4%

Both teams to score

66.6%

—

58.0%

Not both teams to score

33.4%

—

42.0%

FC Köln to score

78.3%

—

60.2%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score

85.1%

—

80.9%

3.2%

6.2%

5.9%

3.7%

1.8%

0.7%

4.9%

9.4%

9.0%

5.7%

2.7%

1.0%

3.8%

7.2%

6.8%

4.3%

2.1%

0.8%

1.9%

3.7%

3.5%

2.2%

1.1%

0.4%

0.7%

1.4%

1.3%

0.8%

0.4%

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%