La LigaCalibrated

Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona

Monday 9 November at 03:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Atlético de Madrid win	31.2%	25.7%	29.5%
Draw	22.0%	22.2%	20.7%
FC Barcelona win	46.8%	52.1%	49.8%
Atlético de Madrid or draw	53.2%	—	50.2%
Atlético de Madrid or FC Barcelona	78.0%	—	79.3%
Draw or FC Barcelona	68.8%	—	70.5%
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	—	87.2%
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	—	12.8%
Over 2.5 goals	67.1%	71.5%	69.9%
Under 2.5 goals	32.9%	28.4%	30.1%
Over 3.5 goals	45.4%	—	48.4%
Under 3.5 goals	54.6%	—	51.6%
Both teams to score	67.0%	—	67.4%
Not both teams to score	33.0%	—	32.6%
Atlético de Madrid to score	78.5%	—	67.2%
FC Barcelona to score	85.3%	—	81.6%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 1 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:37 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:41 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.2%	6.0%	5.8%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
1	4.9%	9.3%	8.9%	5.7%	2.7%	1.0%
2	3.7%	7.2%	6.9%	4.4%	2.1%	0.8%
3	1.9%	3.7%	3.5%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.7%	1.4%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%
5	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–19.3%
2.1–28.9%
3.2–17.2%
4.2–26.9%
5.0–16.0%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.92. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Atlético de MadridLWWDWW

Scored 7 · Conceded 3

Tue 3 Novat Bayern Munich0–2xG 0.70–2.14
Sat 31 Octat Levante UD2–0xG 0.80–1.89
Sat 24 Octat Deportivo A Coruna1–0xG 1.71–1.87
Tue 20 Octat VfB Stuttgart1–1xG 0.90–1.36
Sat 17 Octat Espanyol1–0xG 1.42–0.57
Tue 13 Octat Manchester United2–0xG 1.32–0.93

FC BarcelonaWWLLWW

Scored 21 · Conceded 10

Tue 3 Novat Aston Villa3–0xG 2.24–0.86
Sat 31 Octat Deportivo Alaves6–1xG 2.36–0.95
Sun 25 Octat Real Madrid1–2xG 1.47–1.55
Tue 20 Octat Paris Saint Germain2–4xG 2.23–2.86
Sat 17 Octat Real Betis5–2xG 2.33–0.87
Tue 13 Octat Galatasaray4–1xG 2.46–0.49

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Atlético de Madrid: +0.98 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 6.84 xG, conceded 3 on 8.75 xG against.

FC Barcelona: +0.91 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 21 on 13.09 xG, conceded 10 on 7.57 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Atlético de Madrid win

31.2%

25.7%

29.5%

Draw

22.0%

22.2%

20.7%

FC Barcelona win

46.8%

52.1%

49.8%

Atlético de Madrid or draw

53.2%

—

50.2%

Atlético de Madrid or FC Barcelona

78.0%

—

79.3%

Draw or FC Barcelona

68.8%

—

70.5%

Over 1.5 goals

85.9%

—

87.2%

Under 1.5 goals

14.1%

—

12.8%

Over 2.5 goals

67.1%

71.5%

69.9%

Under 2.5 goals

32.9%

28.4%

30.1%

Over 3.5 goals

45.4%

—

48.4%

Under 3.5 goals

54.6%

—

51.6%

Both teams to score

67.0%

—

67.4%

Not both teams to score

33.0%

—

32.6%

Atlético de Madrid to score

78.5%

—

67.2%

FC Barcelona to score

85.3%

—

81.6%

3.2%

6.0%

5.8%

3.7%

1.8%

0.7%

4.9%

9.3%

8.9%

5.7%

2.7%

1.0%

3.7%

7.2%

6.9%

4.4%

2.1%

0.8%

1.9%

3.7%

3.5%

2.3%

1.1%

0.4%

0.7%

1.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%