La LigaCalibrated

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Sunday 8 November at 22:15 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Real Sociedad win	53.2%	57.5%	49.6%
Draw	20.9%	22.7%	24.4%
Rayo Vallecano win	25.9%	19.8%	26.0%
Real Sociedad or draw	74.1%	—	74.1%
Real Sociedad or Rayo Vallecano	79.1%	—	75.6%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano	46.8%	—	50.4%
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	—	76.7%
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	—	23.3%
Over 2.5 goals	68.9%	59.8%	53.2%
Under 2.5 goals	31.1%	40.2%	46.8%
Over 3.5 goals	47.5%	—	31.1%
Under 3.5 goals	52.5%	—	68.9%
Both teams to score	67.1%	—	55.1%
Not both teams to score	32.9%	—	44.9%
Real Sociedad to score	88.0%	—	79.1%
Rayo Vallecano to score	76.2%	—	61.7%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 9 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:35 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:31 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2.9%	4.1%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
1	6.1%	8.7%	6.2%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
2	6.4%	9.2%	6.6%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
3	4.5%	6.5%	4.7%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.4%	3.4%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
5	1.0%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1.2–19.2%
2.1–18.7%
3.2–26.6%
4.3–16.5%
5.2–06.4%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.44. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Real SociedadDLWWWD

Scored 16 · Conceded 7

Thu 5 Novat Olympique Lyonnais1–1xG 1.17–0.94
Sun 1 Novat Athletic Club1–2xG 1.57–3.00
Sun 25 Octat Levante UD2–1xG 1.99–0.65
Thu 22 Octat Lillestrøm6–0xG 2.81–2.25
Sun 18 Octat Malaga CF5–2xG 2.08–1.70
Thu 15 Octat St. Gilloise1–1xG 0.63–2.16

Rayo VallecanoWLDDWL

Scored 8 · Conceded 10

Sat 31 Octat Celta Vigo3–0xG 1.12–1.35
Sat 24 Octat Elche CF0–3xG 1.46–2.54
Mon 19 Octat Getafe CF1–1xG 1.82–0.98
Sat 19 Septat CA Osasuna1–1xG 1.51–0.92
Tue 15 Septat Espanyol2–1xG 1.64–2.08
Sat 12 Septat Real Madrid1–4xG 1.35–2.96

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Real Sociedad: +1.57 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 16 on 10.25 xG, conceded 7 on 10.69 xG against.

Rayo Vallecano: −0.01 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 8 on 8.90 xG, conceded 10 on 10.84 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Real Sociedad win

53.2%

57.5%

49.6%

Draw

20.9%

22.7%

24.4%

Rayo Vallecano win

25.9%

19.8%

26.0%

Real Sociedad or draw

74.1%

—

74.1%

Real Sociedad or Rayo Vallecano

79.1%

—

75.6%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

46.8%

—

50.4%

Over 1.5 goals

87.0%

—

76.7%

Under 1.5 goals

13.0%

—

23.3%

Over 2.5 goals

68.9%

59.8%

53.2%

Under 2.5 goals

31.1%

40.2%

46.8%

Over 3.5 goals

47.5%

—

31.1%

Under 3.5 goals

52.5%

—

68.9%

Both teams to score

67.1%

—

55.1%

Not both teams to score

32.9%

—

44.9%

Real Sociedad to score

88.0%

—

79.1%

Rayo Vallecano to score

76.2%

—

61.7%

2.9%

4.1%

2.9%

1.4%

0.5%

0.1%

6.1%

8.7%

6.2%

3.0%

1.1%

0.3%

6.4%

9.2%

6.6%

3.2%

1.1%

0.3%

4.5%

6.5%

4.7%

2.2%

0.8%

0.2%

2.4%

3.4%

2.5%

1.2%

0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

0.1%