La LigaCalibrated

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Sunday 8 November at 03:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Valencia win	21.4%	8.2%	13.5%
Draw	21.6%	15.0%	19.6%
Real Madrid win	57.0%	76.8%	66.9%
Valencia or draw	43.0%	—	33.1%
Valencia or Real Madrid	78.4%	—	80.4%
Draw or Real Madrid	78.6%	—	86.5%
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	—	77.4%
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	—	22.6%
Over 2.5 goals	60.4%	65.4%	55.2%
Under 2.5 goals	39.6%	34.6%	44.8%
Over 3.5 goals	38.0%	—	33.6%
Under 3.5 goals	62.0%	—	66.4%
Both teams to score	58.6%	—	47.3%
Not both teams to score	41.4%	—	52.7%
Valencia to score	68.0%	—	45.1%
Real Madrid to score	86.2%	—	86.1%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 7 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 17:01 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:23 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.4%	8.7%	8.7%	5.7%	2.8%	1.1%
1	5.0%	9.9%	9.9%	6.5%	3.2%	1.3%
2	2.9%	5.7%	5.6%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
3	1.1%	2.2%	2.1%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–19.9%
2.1–29.9%
3.0–18.7%
4.0–28.7%
5.1–36.5%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.98. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

ValenciaWLDDLW

Scored 7 · Conceded 7

Sun 1 Novat Elche CF1–0xG 1.02–1.33
Sat 24 Octat Villarreal CF1–2xG 1.27–1.46
Sat 17 Octat Athletic Club0–0xG 1.13–0.75
Sun 11 Octat Racing de Santander2–2xG 1.58–1.15
Sun 20 Septat Real Sociedad2–3xG 1.93–2.54
Tue 15 Septat Deportivo Alaves1–0xG 0.71–0.99

Real MadridWWWWWW

Scored 20 · Conceded 8

Wed 4 Novat AEK Athens3–2xG 3.59–1.16
Sun 1 Novat Racing de Santander3–0xG 2.61–1.43
Sun 25 Octat FC Barcelona2–1xG 1.55–1.47
Wed 21 Octat RB Leipzig4–1xG 3.26–1.16
Sun 18 Octat Sevilla FC4–1xG 1.73–1.39
Wed 14 Octat AS Roma4–3xG 1.97–1.35

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Valencia: +0.10 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 7.64 xG, conceded 7 on 8.22 xG against.

Real Madrid: +0.88 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 20 on 14.70 xG, conceded 8 on 7.96 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Valencia win

21.4%

8.2%

13.5%

Draw

21.6%

15.0%

19.6%

Real Madrid win

57.0%

76.8%

66.9%

Valencia or draw

43.0%

—

33.1%

Valencia or Real Madrid

78.4%

—

80.4%

Draw or Real Madrid

78.6%

—

86.5%

Over 1.5 goals

81.8%

—

77.4%

Under 1.5 goals

18.2%

—

22.6%

Over 2.5 goals

60.4%

65.4%

55.2%

Under 2.5 goals

39.6%

34.6%

44.8%

Over 3.5 goals

38.0%

—

33.6%

Under 3.5 goals

62.0%

—

66.4%

Both teams to score

58.6%

—

47.3%

Not both teams to score

41.4%

—

52.7%

Valencia to score

68.0%

—

45.1%

Real Madrid to score

86.2%

—

86.1%

4.4%

8.7%

5.7%

2.8%

1.1%

5.0%

9.9%

6.5%

3.2%

1.3%

2.9%

5.7%

5.6%

3.7%

1.8%

0.7%

1.1%

2.2%

2.1%

1.4%

0.7%

0.3%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%