Admiral BundesligaCalibrated

Sturm Graz vs Salzburg

Sunday 8 November at 23:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Sturm Graz win	44.9%	31.5%	30.4%
Draw	22.5%	23.4%	24.9%
Salzburg win	32.5%	45.1%	44.7%
Sturm Graz or draw	67.5%	—	55.3%
Sturm Graz or Salzburg	77.5%	—	75.1%
Draw or Salzburg	55.1%	—	69.6%
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	—	78.1%
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	—	21.9%
Over 2.5 goals	65.3%	68.0%	55.9%
Under 2.5 goals	34.7%	32.0%	44.1%
Over 3.5 goals	43.4%	—	34.5%
Under 3.5 goals	56.6%	—	65.5%
Both teams to score	65.8%	—	58.5%
Not both teams to score	34.2%	—	41.5%
Sturm Graz to score	84.0%	—	66.8%
Salzburg to score	78.4%	—	76.3%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 7 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:32 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.5%	5.3%	4.1%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
1	6.3%	9.7%	7.4%	3.8%	1.5%	0.4%
2	5.8%	8.9%	6.8%	3.5%	1.3%	0.4%
3	3.5%	5.4%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.6%	2.5%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%
5	0.6%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–19.7%
2.2–18.9%
3.1–27.4%
4.2–26.8%
5.1–06.3%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.53. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Sturm GrazLDDWWL

Scored 12 · Conceded 10

Thu 5 Novat Celje2–3xG 3.52–1.28
Sun 1 Novat Wolfsberger AC1–1xG 1.77–1.59
Sun 25 Octat Ried2–2xG 2.14–1.63
Thu 22 Octat Olympique Marseille1–0xG 1.09–0.97
Sun 18 Octat Grazer AK6–1xG 3.60–0.55
Thu 15 Octat AFC Bournemouth0–3xG 0.36–3.24

SalzburgLWWDWL

Scored 13 · Conceded 10

Thu 5 Novat Anderlecht0–2xG 0.77–1.85
Sun 1 Novat Austria Lustenau5–1xG 3.18–0.73
Sun 25 Octat LASK3–1xG 1.68–1.25
Thu 22 Octat Celje2–2xG 1.53–1.31
Sun 18 Octat Rheindorf Altach3–0xG 2.28–0.75
Thu 15 Octat AC Milan0–4xG 1.05–2.71

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Sturm Graz: −0.20 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 12.48 xG, conceded 10 on 9.27 xG against.

Salzburg: +0.18 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 13 on 10.49 xG, conceded 10 on 8.60 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Sturm Graz win

44.9%

31.5%

30.4%

Draw

22.5%

23.4%

24.9%

Salzburg win

32.5%

45.1%

44.7%

Sturm Graz or draw

67.5%

—

55.3%

Sturm Graz or Salzburg

77.5%

—

75.1%

Draw or Salzburg

55.1%

—

69.6%

Over 1.5 goals

84.9%

—

78.1%

Under 1.5 goals

15.1%

—

21.9%

Over 2.5 goals

65.3%

68.0%

55.9%

Under 2.5 goals

34.7%

32.0%

44.1%

Over 3.5 goals

43.4%

—

34.5%

Under 3.5 goals

56.6%

—

65.5%

Both teams to score

65.8%

—

58.5%

Not both teams to score

34.2%

—

41.5%

Sturm Graz to score

84.0%

—

66.8%

Salzburg to score

78.4%

—

76.3%

3.5%

5.3%

4.1%

2.1%

0.8%

0.2%

6.3%

9.7%

7.4%

3.8%

1.5%

0.4%

5.8%

8.9%

6.8%

3.5%

1.3%

0.4%

3.5%

5.4%

4.2%

2.1%

0.8%

0.2%

1.6%

2.5%

1.9%

1.0%

0.4%

0.1%

0.6%

0.9%

0.7%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%