PremiershipCalibrated

Celtic vs Kilmarnock

Sunday 8 November at 23:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Celtic win	80.0%	83.8%	67.3%
Draw	11.6%	10.1%	18.6%
Kilmarnock win	8.5%	6.1%	14.1%
Celtic or draw	91.5%	—	85.9%
Celtic or Kilmarnock	88.4%	—	81.4%
Draw or Kilmarnock	20.0%	—	32.7%
Over 1.5 goals	93.3%	—	83.7%
Under 1.5 goals	6.7%	—	16.3%
Over 2.5 goals	81.4%	74.4%	64.4%
Under 2.5 goals	18.6%	25.6%	35.6%
Over 3.5 goals	64.0%	—	42.6%
Under 3.5 goals	36.0%	—	57.4%
Both teams to score	63.6%	—	56.4%
Not both teams to score	36.4%	—	43.6%
Celtic to score	96.4%	—	88.7%
Kilmarnock to score	66.0%	—	49.3%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 7 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:32 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
1	4.1%	4.4%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
2	6.8%	7.3%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
3	7.5%	8.1%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
4	6.2%	6.7%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
5	4.1%	4.5%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%

1.3–18.1%
2.3–07.5%
3.2–17.3%
4.2–06.8%
5.4–16.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 3.32 – 1.08. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

CelticWLDWLW

Scored 15 · Conceded 10

Thu 5 Novat Besiktas3–2xG 0.93–2.44
Sun 1 Novat Falkirk0–2xG 2.77–0.89
Wed 28 Octat Dundee United2–2xG 2.31–0.74
Sun 25 Octat Hibernian2–1xG 1.12–0.99
Thu 22 Octat Celta Vigo1–2xG 0.65–1.42
Sun 18 Octat Hearts7–1xG 2.93–1.72

KilmarnockDLLWLD

Scored 8 · Conceded 14

Sat 31 Octat St. Johnstone2–2xG 3.10–0.89
Wed 28 Octat Dundee1–3xG 2.85–2.11
Sat 24 Octat Falkirk0–3xG 0.99–1.33
Sat 17 Octat Motherwell3–2xG 1.85–3.65
Sat 10 Octat Rangers1–3xG 1.30–1.68
Sat 19 Septat Hearts1–1xG 0.42–1.92

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Celtic: +0.41 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 15 on 10.71 xG, conceded 10 on 8.19 xG against.

Kilmarnock: −0.82 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 8 on 10.51 xG, conceded 14 on 11.58 xG against.

Note: Celtic are overperforming against xG while Kilmarnock are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Celtic win

80.0%

83.8%

67.3%

Draw

11.6%

10.1%

18.6%

Kilmarnock win

8.5%

6.1%

14.1%

Celtic or draw

91.5%

—

85.9%

Celtic or Kilmarnock

88.4%

—

81.4%

Draw or Kilmarnock

20.0%

—

32.7%

Over 1.5 goals

93.3%

—

83.7%

Under 1.5 goals

6.7%

—

16.3%

Over 2.5 goals

81.4%

74.4%

64.4%

Under 2.5 goals

18.6%

25.6%

35.6%

Over 3.5 goals

64.0%

—

42.6%

Under 3.5 goals

36.0%

—

57.4%

Both teams to score

63.6%

—

56.4%

Not both teams to score

36.4%

—

43.6%

Celtic to score

96.4%

—

88.7%

Kilmarnock to score

66.0%

—

49.3%

1.2%

1.3%

0.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

4.1%

4.4%

2.4%

0.9%

0.2%

0.0%

6.8%

7.3%

3.9%

1.4%

0.4%

0.1%

7.5%

8.1%

4.4%

1.6%

0.4%

0.1%

6.2%

6.7%

3.6%

1.3%

0.4%

0.1%

4.1%

4.5%

2.4%

0.9%

0.2%

0.1%