PremiershipCalibrated

Hearts vs Falkirk

Sunday 8 November at 22:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Hearts win	55.3%	63.8%	46.2%
Draw	21.4%	20.1%	24.9%
Falkirk win	23.3%	16.1%	28.9%
Hearts or draw	76.7%	—	71.1%
Hearts or Falkirk	78.6%	—	75.1%
Draw or Falkirk	44.7%	—	53.8%
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	—	77.3%
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	—	22.7%
Over 2.5 goals	63.9%	62.0%	53.5%
Under 2.5 goals	36.1%	38.0%	46.5%
Over 3.5 goals	41.8%	—	30.9%
Under 3.5 goals	58.2%	—	69.1%
Both teams to score	62.2%	—	56.5%
Not both teams to score	37.8%	—	43.5%
Hearts to score	86.9%	—	77.4%
Falkirk to score	71.6%	—	65.4%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 6 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:30 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.7%	4.7%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
1	7.6%	9.5%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
2	7.7%	9.7%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
3	5.2%	6.6%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.6%	3.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
5	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1.2–19.7%
2.1–19.5%
3.2–07.7%
4.1–07.6%
5.3–16.6%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.26. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

HeartsLDWLLD

Scored 7 · Conceded 15

Thu 5 Novat Thun1–3xG 1.29–2.23
Wed 28 Octat Rangers2–2xG 1.68–2.34
Sun 25 Octat Motherwell2–0xG 0.88–1.55
Thu 22 Octat Trabzonspor0–2xG 0.59–1.98
Sun 18 Octat Celtic1–7xG 1.72–2.93
Thu 15 Octat Nordsjælland1–1xG 1.89–0.84

FalkirkWWWWLD

Scored 10 · Conceded 4

Sun 1 Novat Celtic2–0xG 0.89–2.77
Wed 28 Octat Aberdeen1–0xG 1.16–1.68
Sat 24 Octat Kilmarnock3–0xG 1.33–0.99
Sat 17 Octat Hibernian2–1xG 0.70–1.54
Sat 10 Octat Dundee1–2xG 2.16–2.24
Sat 19 Septat St. Johnstone1–1xG 1.29–0.65

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Hearts: −0.70 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 8.06 xG, conceded 15 on 11.86 xG against.

Falkirk: +1.39 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 10 on 7.53 xG, conceded 4 on 9.87 xG against.

Note: Hearts are underperforming against xG while Falkirk are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Hearts win

55.3%

63.8%

46.2%

Draw

21.4%

20.1%

24.9%

Falkirk win

23.3%

16.1%

28.9%

Hearts or draw

76.7%

—

71.1%

Hearts or Falkirk

78.6%

—

75.1%

Draw or Falkirk

44.7%

—

53.8%

Over 1.5 goals

84.0%

—

77.3%

Under 1.5 goals

16.0%

—

22.7%

Over 2.5 goals

63.9%

62.0%

53.5%

Under 2.5 goals

36.1%

38.0%

46.5%

Over 3.5 goals

41.8%

—

30.9%

Under 3.5 goals

58.2%

—

69.1%

Both teams to score

62.2%

—

56.5%

Not both teams to score

37.8%

—

43.5%

Hearts to score

86.9%

—

77.4%

Falkirk to score

71.6%

—

65.4%

3.7%

4.7%

2.9%

1.2%

0.4%

0.1%

7.6%

9.5%

6.0%

2.5%

0.8%

0.2%

7.7%

9.7%

6.1%

2.6%

0.8%

0.2%

5.2%

6.6%

4.1%

1.7%

0.5%

0.1%

2.6%

3.3%

2.1%

0.9%

0.3%

0.1%

1.1%

1.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%