Premier LeagueCalibrated

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Sunday 8 November at 23:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Manchester United win	44.0%	44.1%	43.4%
Draw	23.4%	25.0%	23.1%
Aston Villa win	32.6%	30.9%	33.6%
Manchester United or draw	67.4%	—	66.5%
Manchester United or Aston Villa	76.6%	—	77.0%
Draw or Aston Villa	56.0%	—	56.7%
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	—	86.0%
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	—	14.0%
Over 2.5 goals	61.1%	59.7%	67.8%
Under 2.5 goals	38.9%	40.3%	32.3%
Over 3.5 goals	38.8%	—	47.0%
Under 3.5 goals	61.2%	—	53.0%
Both teams to score	62.6%	—	67.8%
Not both teams to score	37.4%	—	32.2%
Manchester United to score	81.9%	—	78.0%
Aston Villa to score	76.4%	—	71.1%

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:33 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.3%	6.2%	4.4%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
1	7.3%	10.5%	7.6%	3.7%	1.3%	0.4%
2	6.2%	9.0%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
3	3.6%	5.1%	3.7%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.5%	2.2%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
5	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–110.5%
2.2–19.0%
3.1–27.6%
4.1–07.3%
5.2–26.5%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.45. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Manchester UnitedWLLLDL

Scored 5 · Conceded 14

Tue 3 Novat AS Roma3–2xG 2.23–1.28
Sat 31 Octat Chelsea0–2xG 1.12–2.44
Sun 25 Octat AFC Bournemouth0–3xG 1.26–1.39
Wed 21 Octat Como 19071–4xG 0.74–1.15
Sun 18 Octat Leeds United1–1xG 0.86–1.31
Wed 14 Octat Atletico Madrid0–2xG 0.98–1.47

Aston VillaLDLWWW

Scored 7 · Conceded 9

Tue 3 Novat FC Barcelona0–3xG 0.86–2.24
Sat 31 Octat Fulham1–1xG 1.80–2.86
Wed 28 Octat AFC Bournemouth0–3xG 1.94–2.85
Sat 24 Octat Manchester City2–1xG 0.66–1.79
Wed 21 Octat Viking3–1xG 2.95–0.78
Sat 17 Octat Newcastle United1–0xG 1.72–1.30

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Manchester United: −1.19 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 5 on 7.19 xG, conceded 14 on 9.05 xG against.

Aston Villa: −0.01 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 9.92 xG, conceded 9 on 11.84 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Manchester United win

44.0%

44.1%

43.4%

Draw

23.4%

25.0%

23.1%

Aston Villa win

32.6%

30.9%

33.6%

Manchester United or draw

67.4%

—

66.5%

Manchester United or Aston Villa

76.6%

—

77.0%

Draw or Aston Villa

56.0%

—

56.7%

Over 1.5 goals

82.3%

—

86.0%

Under 1.5 goals

17.7%

—

14.0%

Over 2.5 goals

61.1%

59.7%

67.8%

Under 2.5 goals

38.9%

40.3%

32.3%

Over 3.5 goals

38.8%

—

47.0%

Under 3.5 goals

61.2%

—

53.0%

Both teams to score

62.6%

—

67.8%

Not both teams to score

37.4%

—

32.2%

Manchester United to score

81.9%

—

78.0%

Aston Villa to score

76.4%

—

71.1%

4.3%

6.2%

4.4%

2.1%

0.8%

0.2%

7.3%

10.5%

7.6%

3.7%

1.3%

0.4%

6.2%

9.0%

6.5%

3.1%

1.1%

0.3%

3.6%

5.1%

3.7%

1.8%

0.6%

0.2%

1.5%

2.2%

1.6%

0.8%

0.3%

0.1%

0.5%

0.8%

0.5%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%