Super LeagueCalibrated

St. Gallen vs Lugano

Sunday 8 November at 20:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
St. Gallen win	36.6%	41.8%	28.1%
Draw	24.8%	24.0%	23.9%
Lugano win	38.6%	34.2%	48.0%
St. Gallen or draw	61.4%	—	52.0%
St. Gallen or Lugano	75.2%	—	76.1%
Draw or Lugano	63.4%	—	71.9%
Over 1.5 goals	78.3%	—	82.6%
Under 1.5 goals	21.7%	—	17.4%
Over 2.5 goals	55.1%	63.7%	62.6%
Under 2.5 goals	44.9%	36.3%	37.4%
Over 3.5 goals	32.7%	—	40.0%
Under 3.5 goals	67.3%	—	60.0%
Both teams to score	58.3%	—	61.9%
Not both teams to score	41.7%	—	38.1%
St. Gallen to score	75.8%	—	65.3%
Lugano to score	76.9%	—	79.9%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 3 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:34 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:28 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.6%	8.2%	6.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
1	7.9%	11.6%	8.5%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
2	5.6%	8.2%	6.0%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
3	2.7%	3.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–111.6%
2.1–28.5%
3.2–18.2%
4.0–18.2%
5.1–07.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.47. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

St. GallenWLWDWL

Scored 10 · Conceded 11

Sat 31 Octat Servette2–1xG 1.88–1.09
Sat 24 Octat Young Boys0–2xG 0.95–1.72
Sun 11 Octat Lausanne Sport1–0xG 1.57–0.68
Sat 3 Octat Bruhl3–3
Sun 20 Septat Basel3–1xG 1.85–1.45
Wed 16 Septat Lugano1–4xG 1.28–1.34

LuganoWWWWWW

Scored 20 · Conceded 7

Thu 5 Novat Kauno Zalgiris3–0xG 1.56–0.46
Sun 1 Novat Basel2–1xG 0.75–1.13
Sun 25 Octat Thun3–2xG 2.06–2.48
Thu 22 Octat Getafe CF5–2xG 1.75–2.50
Thu 15 Octat Crvena Zvezda3–2xG 2.29–1.22
Sat 10 Octat Luzern4–0xG 2.14–1.15

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

St. Gallen: −0.45 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 7 on 7.54 xG, conceded 8 on 6.29 xG against.

Lugano: +1.90 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 20 on 10.55 xG, conceded 7 on 8.92 xG against.

Note: St. Gallen are underperforming against xG while Lugano are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

St. Gallen win

36.6%

41.8%

28.1%

Draw

24.8%

24.0%

23.9%

Lugano win

38.6%

34.2%

48.0%

St. Gallen or draw

61.4%

—

52.0%

St. Gallen or Lugano

75.2%

—

76.1%

Draw or Lugano

63.4%

—

71.9%

Over 1.5 goals

78.3%

—

82.6%

Under 1.5 goals

21.7%

—

17.4%

Over 2.5 goals

55.1%

63.7%

62.6%

Under 2.5 goals

44.9%

36.3%

37.4%

Over 3.5 goals

32.7%

—

40.0%

Under 3.5 goals

67.3%

—

60.0%

Both teams to score

58.3%

—

61.9%

Not both teams to score

41.7%

—

38.1%

St. Gallen to score

75.8%

—

65.3%

Lugano to score

76.9%

—

79.9%

5.6%

8.2%

6.0%

2.9%

1.1%

0.3%

7.9%

11.6%

8.5%

4.2%

1.5%

0.4%

5.6%

8.2%

6.0%

3.0%

1.1%

0.3%

2.7%

3.9%

2.9%

1.4%

0.5%

0.2%

0.9%

1.4%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%