Super LeagueCalibrated

Thun vs Basel

Sunday 8 November at 22:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Thun win	47.5%	45.1%	32.4%
Draw	20.9%	23.8%	21.7%
Basel win	31.6%	31.2%	46.0%
Thun or draw	68.4%	—	54.1%
Thun or Basel	79.1%	—	78.3%
Draw or Basel	52.5%	—	67.7%
Over 1.5 goals	89.2%	—	86.8%
Under 1.5 goals	10.8%	—	13.3%
Over 2.5 goals	73.0%	67.0%	69.3%
Under 2.5 goals	27.0%	33.0%	30.7%
Over 3.5 goals	52.5%	—	46.7%
Under 3.5 goals	47.5%	—	53.3%
Both teams to score	71.6%	—	68.0%
Not both teams to score	28.4%	—	32.0%
Thun to score	87.7%	—	70.3%
Basel to score	81.6%	—	79.4%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:35 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:31 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2.3%	3.8%	3.2%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%
1	4.7%	8.0%	6.8%	3.8%	1.6%	0.5%
2	5.0%	8.4%	7.1%	4.0%	1.7%	0.6%
3	3.5%	5.9%	5.0%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.8%	3.1%	2.6%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
5	0.8%	1.3%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1.2–18.4%
2.1–18.0%
3.2–27.1%
4.1–26.8%
5.3–15.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.69. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

ThunWWLLLL

Scored 12 · Conceded 14

Thu 5 Novat Hearts3–1xG 2.23–1.29
Sun 1 Novat Lausanne Sport5–4xG 3.24–1.94
Sun 25 Octat Lugano2–3xG 2.48–2.06
Thu 22 Octat Hajduk Split0–1xG 1.48–1.32
Thu 15 Octat FC Twente0–1xG 0.23–2.29
Sat 10 Octat Zurich2–4xG 1.11–0.96

BaselLDLLLW

Scored 9 · Conceded 17

Sun 1 Novat Lugano1–2xG 1.13–0.75
Sun 25 Octat Grasshopper0–0xG 1.73–1.05
Sun 11 Octat Vaduz0–3xG 0.98–2.62
Sat 3 Octat Winterthur3–7
Sun 20 Septat St. Gallen1–3xG 1.45–1.85
Sun 13 Septat Luzern4–2xG 1.31–1.54

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Thun: −0.49 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 10.77 xG, conceded 14 on 9.85 xG against.

Basel: −0.56 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 6 on 6.60 xG, conceded 10 on 7.81 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Thun win

47.5%

45.1%

32.4%

Draw

20.9%

23.8%

21.7%

Basel win

31.6%

31.2%

46.0%

Thun or draw

68.4%

—

54.1%

Thun or Basel

79.1%

—

78.3%

Draw or Basel

52.5%

—

67.7%

Over 1.5 goals

89.2%

—

86.8%

Under 1.5 goals

10.8%

—

13.3%

Over 2.5 goals

73.0%

67.0%

69.3%

Under 2.5 goals

27.0%

33.0%

30.7%

Over 3.5 goals

52.5%

—

46.7%

Under 3.5 goals

47.5%

—

53.3%

Both teams to score

71.6%

—

68.0%

Not both teams to score

28.4%

—

32.0%

Thun to score

87.7%

—

70.3%

Basel to score

81.6%

—

79.4%

2.3%

3.8%

3.2%

1.8%

0.8%

0.3%

4.7%

8.0%

6.8%

3.8%

1.6%

0.5%

5.0%

8.4%

7.1%

4.0%

1.7%

0.6%

3.5%

5.9%

5.0%

2.8%

1.2%

0.4%

1.8%

3.1%

2.6%

1.5%

0.6%

0.2%

0.8%

1.3%

1.1%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%