J1 LeagueCalibrated

Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sunday 8 November at 12:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Machida Zelvia win	44.2%	32.0%	32.7%
Draw	25.1%	27.3%	25.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	30.7%	40.7%	41.8%
Machida Zelvia or draw	69.3%	—	58.3%
Machida Zelvia or Sanfrecce Hiroshima	74.9%	—	74.5%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima	55.8%	—	67.3%
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	—	77.0%
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	—	23.0%
Over 2.5 goals	52.6%	52.2%	53.6%
Under 2.5 goals	47.4%	47.8%	46.4%
Over 3.5 goals	30.4%	—	31.0%
Under 3.5 goals	69.6%	—	69.0%
Both teams to score	55.9%	—	55.7%
Not both teams to score	44.1%	—	44.3%
Machida Zelvia to score	78.6%	—	68.1%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score	71.1%	—	74.5%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 17:02 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:25 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.2%	7.7%	4.8%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
1	9.5%	11.8%	7.4%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
2	7.3%	9.1%	5.7%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
3	3.8%	4.7%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–111.8%
2.1–09.5%
3.2–19.1%
4.0–17.7%
5.1–27.4%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.24. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Machida ZelviaWDWDWW

Scored 11 · Conceded 1

Thu 5 Novat Shanghai Shenhua2–1
Sun 1 Novat Gamba Osaka0–0xG 1.43–1.59
Thu 29 Octat Shanghai Shenhua1–0
Sat 24 Octat Vissel Kobe0–0xG 1.89–1.41
Wed 21 Octat Shimizu S-Pulse5–0xG 3.45–0.16
Sun 18 Octat Avispa Fukuoka3–0xG 1.45–0.86

Sanfrecce HiroshimaWWLWWW

Scored 13 · Conceded 4

Sat 31 Octat Mito Hollyhock3–0xG 1.46–0.22
Sat 24 Octat Shimizu S-Pulse4–0xG 1.73–0.53
Wed 21 Octat V-Varen Nagasaki0–4xG 1.14–1.75
Sat 17 Octat Kyoto Sanga3–0xG 1.83–0.67
Sun 11 Octat Tokyo Verdy2–0xG 0.91–0.50
Sat 19 Septat Avispa Fukuoka1–0xG 4.52–0.18

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Machida Zelvia: +0.95 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 4 games: scored 8 on 8.22 xG, conceded 0 on 4.02 xG against.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: +0.21 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 13 on 11.60 xG, conceded 4 on 3.85 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Machida Zelvia win

44.2%

32.0%

32.7%

Draw

25.1%

27.3%

25.5%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

30.7%

40.7%

41.8%

Machida Zelvia or draw

69.3%

—

58.3%

Machida Zelvia or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74.9%

—

74.5%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

55.8%

—

67.3%

Over 1.5 goals

76.6%

—

77.0%

Under 1.5 goals

23.4%

—

23.0%

Over 2.5 goals

52.6%

52.2%

53.6%

Under 2.5 goals

47.4%

47.8%

46.4%

Over 3.5 goals

30.4%

—

31.0%

Under 3.5 goals

69.6%

—

69.0%

Both teams to score

55.9%

—

55.7%

Not both teams to score

44.1%

—

44.3%

Machida Zelvia to score

78.6%

—

68.1%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score

71.1%

—

74.5%

6.2%

7.7%

4.8%

2.0%

0.6%

0.2%

9.5%

11.8%

7.4%

3.0%

0.9%

0.2%

7.3%

9.1%

5.7%

2.3%

0.7%

0.2%

3.8%

4.7%

2.9%

1.2%

0.4%

0.1%

1.5%

1.8%

1.1%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

0.4%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%