EkstraklasaCalibrated

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa

Sunday 8 November at 23:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Legia Warszawa win	51.5%	50.8%	54.2%
Draw	22.8%	24.9%	23.7%
Raków Częstochowa win	25.6%	24.3%	22.1%
Legia Warszawa or draw	74.4%	—	77.9%
Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa	77.2%	—	76.3%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa	48.5%	—	45.8%
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	—	80.0%
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	—	20.1%
Over 2.5 goals	59.3%	57.1%	58.2%
Under 2.5 goals	40.7%	42.9%	41.8%
Over 3.5 goals	36.9%	—	36.0%
Under 3.5 goals	63.1%	—	64.0%
Both teams to score	59.6%	—	58.9%
Not both teams to score	40.4%	—	41.1%
Legia Warszawa to score	84.1%	—	83.3%
Raków Częstochowa to score	70.9%	—	61.0%

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:33 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.6%	5.7%	3.5%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
1	8.5%	10.5%	6.5%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
2	7.8%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
3	4.8%	5.9%	3.7%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.2%	2.7%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–110.5%
2.2–19.7%
3.1–08.5%
4.2–07.8%
5.1–26.5%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.23. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Legia WarszawaDLDWWW

Scored 12 · Conceded 5

Fri 30 Octat Gornik Zabrze0–0xG 0.52–1.01
Sun 25 Octat Lech Poznan1–2xG 1.47–1.42
Sat 17 Octat Cracovia Krakow1–1xG 1.04–0.99
Sun 11 Octat Wisła Krakow2–0xG 1.88–0.93
Sat 3 Octat Korona Kielce5–1
Sun 20 Septat Jagiellonia Białystok3–1xG 1.53–2.08

Raków CzęstochowaWLWLWL

Scored 13 · Conceded 12

Mon 2 Novat Pogon Szczecin3–1xG 2.48–0.60
Sat 24 Octat Wisła Krakow1–2xG 1.93–1.15
Fri 16 Octat Wieczysta Krakow2–1xG 2.77–1.32
Fri 9 Octat Katowice1–4xG 0.98–2.45
Fri 2 Octat Polonia Bytom4–1
Sat 19 Septat Korona Kielce2–3xG 2.09–3.55

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Legia Warszawa: +0.60 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 7 on 6.44 xG, conceded 4 on 6.42 xG against.

Raków Częstochowa: −0.64 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 9 on 10.25 xG, conceded 11 on 9.07 xG against.

Note: Legia Warszawa are overperforming against xG while Raków Częstochowa are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Legia Warszawa win

51.5%

50.8%

54.2%

Draw

22.8%

24.9%

23.7%

Raków Częstochowa win

25.6%

24.3%

22.1%

Legia Warszawa or draw

74.4%

—

77.9%

Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa

77.2%

—

76.3%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

48.5%

—

45.8%

Over 1.5 goals

81.1%

—

80.0%

Under 1.5 goals

18.9%

—

20.1%

Over 2.5 goals

59.3%

57.1%

58.2%

Under 2.5 goals

40.7%

42.9%

41.8%

Over 3.5 goals

36.9%

—

36.0%

Under 3.5 goals

63.1%

—

64.0%

Both teams to score

59.6%

—

58.9%

Not both teams to score

40.4%

—

41.1%

Legia Warszawa to score

84.1%

—

83.3%

Raków Częstochowa to score

70.9%

—

61.0%

4.6%

5.7%

3.5%

1.5%

0.4%

0.1%

8.5%

10.5%

6.5%

2.7%

0.8%

0.2%

7.8%

9.7%

6.0%

2.5%

0.8%

0.2%

4.8%

5.9%

3.7%

1.5%

0.5%

0.1%

2.2%

2.7%

1.7%

0.7%

0.2%

0.1%

0.8%

1.0%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%