EkstraklasaCalibrated

Lech Poznań vs Zagłębie Lubin

Monday 9 November at 02:15 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Lech Poznań win	55.5%	65.7%	56.7%
Draw	21.2%	19.6%	22.1%
Zagłębie Lubin win	23.4%	14.8%	21.2%
Lech Poznań or draw	76.6%	—	78.8%
Lech Poznań or Zagłębie Lubin	78.8%	—	77.9%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin	44.5%	—	43.3%
Over 1.5 goals	84.6%	—	85.8%
Under 1.5 goals	15.4%	—	14.2%
Over 2.5 goals	64.8%	61.5%	66.8%
Under 2.5 goals	35.2%	38.5%	33.2%
Over 3.5 goals	42.8%	—	43.9%
Under 3.5 goals	57.2%	—	56.1%
Both teams to score	62.9%	—	63.7%
Not both teams to score	37.1%	—	36.3%
Lech Poznań to score	87.3%	—	86.1%
Zagłębie Lubin to score	72.1%	—	61.3%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 2 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:37 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:41 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.6%	4.5%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
1	7.3%	9.4%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
2	7.5%	9.6%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
3	5.2%	6.6%	4.2%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.7%	3.4%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
5	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1.2–19.6%
2.1–19.4%
3.2–07.5%
4.1–07.3%
5.3–16.6%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.28. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Lech PoznańLWWDWL

Scored 13 · Conceded 11

Thu 5 Novat SL Benfica1–3xG 0.37–3.49
Sat 31 Octat Wisła Krakow3–1xG 1.73–1.56
Sun 25 Octat Legia Warszawa2–1xG 1.42–1.47
Thu 22 Octat Sunderland1–1xG 2.13–2.33
Sun 18 Octat Korona Kielce6–1xG 1.75–1.22
Thu 15 Octat Bayer 04 Leverkusen0–4xG 0.55–5.41

Zagłębie LubinWDWLWL

Scored 6 · Conceded 7

Mon 2 Novat Korona Kielce1–0xG 0.99–1.02
Fri 23 Octat Motor Lublin2–2xG 0.82–1.58
Sun 18 Octat Jagiellonia Białystok1–0xG 2.10–1.76
Sat 10 Octat Cracovia Krakow1–3xG 1.15–2.21
Sat 3 Octat Miedz Legnica1–0
Sun 20 Septat Wisła Płock0–2xG 1.49–1.52

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Lech Poznań: +1.59 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 13 on 7.95 xG, conceded 11 on 15.48 xG against.

Zagłębie Lubin: −0.09 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 5 games: scored 5 on 6.56 xG, conceded 7 on 8.09 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Lech Poznań win

55.5%

65.7%

56.7%

Draw

21.2%

19.6%

22.1%

Zagłębie Lubin win

23.4%

14.8%

21.2%

Lech Poznań or draw

76.6%

—

78.8%

Lech Poznań or Zagłębie Lubin

78.8%

—

77.9%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin

44.5%

—

43.3%

Over 1.5 goals

84.6%

—

85.8%

Under 1.5 goals

15.4%

—

14.2%

Over 2.5 goals

64.8%

61.5%

66.8%

Under 2.5 goals

35.2%

38.5%

33.2%

Over 3.5 goals

42.8%

—

43.9%

Under 3.5 goals

57.2%

—

56.1%

Both teams to score

62.9%

—

63.7%

Not both teams to score

37.1%

—

36.3%

Lech Poznań to score

87.3%

—

86.1%

Zagłębie Lubin to score

72.1%

—

61.3%

3.6%

4.5%

2.9%

1.2%

0.4%

0.1%

7.3%

9.4%

6.0%

2.5%

0.8%

0.2%

7.5%

9.6%

6.1%

2.6%

0.8%

0.2%

5.2%

6.6%

4.2%

1.8%

0.6%

0.1%

2.7%

3.4%

2.2%

0.9%

0.3%

0.1%

1.1%

1.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%