Ligue 1Calibrated

Auxerre vs Paris

Sunday 8 November at 01:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Auxerre win	29.3%	20.1%	39.6%
Draw	24.3%	23.3%	26.6%
Paris win	46.4%	56.6%	33.9%
Auxerre or draw	53.6%	—	66.2%
Auxerre or Paris	75.7%	—	73.4%
Draw or Paris	70.7%	—	60.5%
Over 1.5 goals	78.4%	—	75.2%
Under 1.5 goals	21.6%	—	24.8%
Over 2.5 goals	55.2%	55.6%	51.1%
Under 2.5 goals	44.8%	44.4%	48.9%
Over 3.5 goals	32.8%	—	29.2%
Under 3.5 goals	67.2%	—	70.8%
Both teams to score	57.6%	—	55.7%
Not both teams to score	42.4%	—	44.3%
Auxerre to score	71.5%	—	72.9%
Paris to score	80.5%	—	69.1%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 19:37 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:22 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.6%	9.1%	7.4%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%
1	7.0%	11.4%	9.3%	5.1%	2.1%	0.7%
2	4.4%	7.1%	5.8%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
3	1.8%	3.0%	2.4%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–111.4%
2.1–29.3%
3.0–19.1%
4.0–27.4%
5.2–17.1%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.64. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

AuxerreLDWLWW

Scored 12 · Conceded 15

Sun 1 Novat RC Strasbourg1–5xG 0.48–3.14
Sun 25 Octat Le Mans1–1xG 0.91–1.19
Sun 18 Octat Le Havre AC3–1xG 1.68–1.65
Sun 11 Octat Stade Rennais1–4xG 0.88–2.33
Fri 2 Octat Clermont Foot4–3
Sun 20 Septat Stade Brestois 292–1xG 0.91–0.38

ParisWLWLLW

Scored 11 · Conceded 10

Sun 1 Novat AS Monaco3–1xG 1.95–1.14
Sat 24 Octat RC Lens1–2xG 0.56–0.85
Sun 18 Octat Stade Rennais4–3xG 3.25–3.05
Sat 10 Octat FC Lorient0–1xG 0.95–0.73
Sat 3 Octat Red Star FC1–2
Sat 19 Septat RC Strasbourg2–1xG 1.36–0.37

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Auxerre: −0.03 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 5 games: scored 8 on 4.86 xG, conceded 12 on 8.69 xG against.

Paris: +0.01 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 5 games: scored 10 on 8.08 xG, conceded 8 on 6.13 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Auxerre win

29.3%

20.1%

39.6%

Draw

24.3%

23.3%

26.6%

Paris win

46.4%

56.6%

33.9%

Auxerre or draw

53.6%

—

66.2%

Auxerre or Paris

75.7%

—

73.4%

Draw or Paris

70.7%

—

60.5%

Over 1.5 goals

78.4%

—

75.2%

Under 1.5 goals

21.6%

—

24.8%

Over 2.5 goals

55.2%

55.6%

51.1%

Under 2.5 goals

44.8%

44.4%

48.9%

Over 3.5 goals

32.8%

—

29.2%

Under 3.5 goals

67.2%

—

70.8%

Both teams to score

57.6%

—

55.7%

Not both teams to score

42.4%

—

44.3%

Auxerre to score

71.5%

—

72.9%

Paris to score

80.5%

—

69.1%

5.6%

9.1%

7.4%

4.1%

1.7%

0.5%

7.0%

11.4%

9.3%

5.1%

2.1%

0.7%

4.4%

7.1%

5.8%

3.2%

1.3%

0.4%

1.8%

3.0%

2.4%

1.3%

0.5%

0.2%

0.6%

0.9%

0.8%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%