Ligue 1Calibrated

Brest vs Olympique Lyonnais

Sunday 8 November at 23:15 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Brest win	35.6%	33.8%	44.1%
Draw	23.6%	26.7%	26.7%
Olympique Lyonnais win	40.8%	39.5%	29.2%
Brest or draw	59.2%	—	70.8%
Brest or Olympique Lyonnais	76.4%	—	73.2%
Draw or Olympique Lyonnais	64.4%	—	55.9%
Over 1.5 goals	82.2%	—	73.2%
Under 1.5 goals	17.8%	—	26.8%
Over 2.5 goals	60.9%	51.9%	49.1%
Under 2.5 goals	39.1%	48.1%	50.9%
Over 3.5 goals	38.6%	—	27.9%
Under 3.5 goals	61.4%	—	72.1%
Both teams to score	62.8%	—	53.6%
Not both teams to score	37.2%	—	46.4%
Brest to score	78.0%	—	74.5%
Olympique Lyonnais to score	80.5%	—	64.2%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 8 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:32 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.3%	7.0%	5.7%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%
1	6.5%	10.6%	8.7%	4.7%	1.9%	0.6%
2	4.9%	8.0%	6.6%	3.6%	1.5%	0.5%
3	2.5%	4.1%	3.3%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.5%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
5	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–110.6%
2.1–28.7%
3.2–18.0%
4.0–17.0%
5.2–26.6%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.64. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

BrestWLDWDL

Scored 12 · Conceded 8

Mon 2 Novat FC Lorient2–0xG 1.04–1.93
Fri 23 Octat OGC Nice1–2xG 1.79–0.72
Sat 17 Octat LOSC Lille1–1xG 0.52–2.08
Sat 10 Octat Angers SCO5–1xG 2.79–1.26
Sat 3 Octat AC Monza2–2
Sun 20 Septat AJ Auxerre1–2xG 0.38–0.91

Olympique LyonnaisDWLLWW

Scored 8 · Conceded 9

Thu 5 Novat Real Sociedad1–1xG 0.94–1.17
Sun 1 Novat Angers SCO2–0xG 2.52–0.62
Mon 26 Octat Paris Saint Germain0–2xG 0.90–1.51
Thu 22 Octat TSG Hoffenheim0–3xG 0.66–1.91
Sun 18 Octat OGC Nice2–1xG 1.38–1.33
Thu 15 Octat Crystal Palace3–2xG 2.60–2.52

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Brest: +0.88 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 10 on 6.51 xG, conceded 6 on 6.90 xG against.

Olympique Lyonnais: −0.16 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 8 on 9.01 xG, conceded 9 on 9.05 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Brest win

35.6%

33.8%

44.1%

Draw

23.6%

26.7%

Olympique Lyonnais win

40.8%

39.5%

29.2%

Brest or draw

59.2%

—

70.8%

Brest or Olympique Lyonnais

76.4%

—

73.2%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais

64.4%

—

55.9%

Over 1.5 goals

82.2%

—

73.2%

Under 1.5 goals

17.8%

—

26.8%

Over 2.5 goals

60.9%

51.9%

49.1%

Under 2.5 goals

39.1%

48.1%

50.9%

Over 3.5 goals

38.6%

—

27.9%

Under 3.5 goals

61.4%

—

72.1%

Both teams to score

62.8%

—

53.6%

Not both teams to score

37.2%

—

46.4%

Brest to score

78.0%

—

74.5%

Olympique Lyonnais to score

80.5%

—

64.2%

4.3%

7.0%

5.7%

3.1%

1.3%

0.4%

6.5%

10.6%

8.7%

4.7%

1.9%

0.6%

4.9%

8.0%

6.6%

3.6%

1.5%

0.5%

2.5%

4.1%

3.3%

1.8%

0.7%

0.2%

0.9%