Ligue 1Calibrated

Lens vs Olympique Marseille

Monday 9 November at 02:45 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Lens win	46.9%	46.6%	38.7%
Draw	22.1%	23.6%	22.5%
Olympique Marseille win	31.0%	29.8%	38.9%
Lens or draw	69.0%	—	61.2%
Lens or Olympique Marseille	77.9%	—	77.6%
Draw or Olympique Marseille	53.1%	—	61.3%
Over 1.5 goals	85.9%	—	86.6%
Under 1.5 goals	14.1%	—	13.4%
Over 2.5 goals	66.9%	65.1%	70.2%
Under 2.5 goals	33.1%	34.9%	29.8%
Over 3.5 goals	45.2%	—	50.0%
Under 3.5 goals	54.8%	—	50.0%
Both teams to score	66.8%	—	68.4%
Not both teams to score	33.2%	—	31.6%
Lens to score	85.3%	—	73.9%
Olympique Marseille to score	78.4%	—	73.4%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 1 picks.

Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:37 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:41 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.2%	4.9%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
1	6.1%	9.3%	7.1%	3.6%	1.4%	0.4%
2	5.8%	8.9%	6.8%	3.5%	1.3%	0.4%
3	3.7%	5.7%	4.4%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.7%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
5	0.7%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

1.1–19.3%
2.2–18.9%
3.1–27.1%
4.2–26.8%
5.1–06.1%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.53. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

LensLLWLWL

Scored 6 · Conceded 17

Wed 4 Novat Como 19071–9xG 0.91–2.94
Fri 30 Octat LOSC Lille0–1xG 0.26–1.53
Sat 24 Octat Paris2–1xG 0.85–0.56
Wed 21 Octat Club Brugge0–3xG 1.94–2.65
Sat 17 Octat ESTAC Troyes3–1xG 1.75–1.04
Tue 13 Octat Sp Lisbon0–2xG 1.66–1.37

Olympique MarseilleWWWLWL

Scored 12 · Conceded 7

Thu 5 Novat Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–0xG 0.72–1.31
Sun 1 Novat Toulouse FC2–0xG 1.15–1.93
Sun 25 Octat Le Havre AC4–3xG 1.24–2.98
Thu 22 Octat Sturm Graz0–1xG 0.97–1.09
Sun 18 Octat Angers SCO5–2xG 2.83–2.00
Thu 15 Octat Olympiacos F.C.0–1xG 0.77–0.71

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Lens: −1.38 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 6 on 7.37 xG, conceded 17 on 10.09 xG against.

Olympique Marseille: +1.22 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 7.68 xG, conceded 7 on 10.02 xG against.

Note: Lens are underperforming against xG while Olympique Marseille are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Lens win

46.9%

46.6%

38.7%

Draw

22.1%

23.6%

22.5%

Olympique Marseille win

31.0%

29.8%

38.9%

Lens or draw

69.0%

—

61.2%

Lens or Olympique Marseille

77.9%

—

77.6%

Draw or Olympique Marseille

53.1%

—

61.3%

Over 1.5 goals

85.9%

—

86.6%

Under 1.5 goals

14.1%

—

13.4%

Over 2.5 goals

66.9%

65.1%

70.2%

Under 2.5 goals

33.1%

34.9%

29.8%

Over 3.5 goals

45.2%

—

50.0%

Under 3.5 goals

54.8%

—

50.0%

Both teams to score

66.8%

—

68.4%

Not both teams to score

33.2%

—

31.6%

Lens to score

85.3%

—

73.9%

Olympique Marseille to score

78.4%

—

73.4%

3.2%

4.9%

3.7%

1.9%

0.7%

0.2%

6.1%

9.3%

7.1%

3.6%

1.4%

0.4%

5.8%

8.9%

6.8%

3.5%

1.3%

0.4%

3.7%

5.7%

4.4%

2.2%

0.9%

0.3%

1.8%

2.7%

2.1%

1.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.7%

1.1%

0.8%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%