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1. HNLCalibrated
Monday 9 November at 00:00 WIB
| Pick | Model | Market | Sportmonks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varaždin win | 29.6% | 19.9% | 20.6% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 22.9% | 22.2% |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 43.7% | 57.1% | 57.2% |
| Varaždin or draw | 56.3% | — | 42.8% |
| Varaždin or Dinamo Zagreb | 73.3% | — | 77.8% |
| Draw or Dinamo Zagreb | 70.4% | — | 79.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | 79.8% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.0% | — | 20.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 56.5% | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 43.5% | 41.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | — | 35.6% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76.1% | — | 64.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | — | 56.4% |
| Not both teams to score | 50.0% | — | 43.6% |
| Varaždin to score | 66.5% | — | 57.8% |
| Dinamo Zagreb to score | 75.1% | — | 83.2% |
Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 6 picks.
Market odds captured Tuesday 3 November at 19:36 WIB · 1xBet.
Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:33 WIB.
Home goals down, away goals across.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.
Expected goals 1.09 – 1.39. Correlation 0.00.
Ratings from primary_league.
This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.
This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.
Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.
Scored 3 · Conceded 4
Scored 12 · Conceded 7
Varaždin: not enough xG data yet.
Dinamo Zagreb: −0.02 per game vs xG — In line.
Across 3 games: scored 5 on 6.05 xG, conceded 4 on 5.00 xG against.
No picks recorded for this package
This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.