Serie ACalibrated

Napoli vs Lazio

Sunday 8 November at 18:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Napoli win	39.7%	42.4%	42.2%
Draw	25.7%	26.4%	26.7%
Lazio win	34.5%	31.2%	31.0%
Napoli or draw	65.5%	—	69.0%
Napoli or Lazio	74.3%	—	73.2%
Draw or Lazio	60.3%	—	57.7%
Over 1.5 goals	75.3%	—	77.4%
Under 1.5 goals	24.7%	—	22.6%
Over 2.5 goals	50.9%	54.4%	54.3%
Under 2.5 goals	49.1%	45.6%	45.7%
Over 3.5 goals	28.8%	—	32.0%
Under 3.5 goals	71.2%	—	68.0%
Both teams to score	55.0%	—	58.0%
Not both teams to score	45.0%	—	42.0%
Napoli to score	75.6%	—	75.7%
Lazio to score	72.7%	—	67.9%

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 19:38 WIB · 1xBet.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:27 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.6%	8.6%	5.6%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
1	9.4%	12.2%	7.9%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%
2	6.6%	8.6%	5.6%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
3	3.1%	4.1%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–112.2%
2.1–09.4%
3.0–18.6%
4.2–18.6%
5.1–27.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.30. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

NapoliLLWDWL

Scored 12 · Conceded 14

Wed 4 Novat FC Porto1–4xG 1.57–2.91
Sun 1 Novat Juventus0–2xG 0.75–1.10
Wed 28 Octat AC Monza4–1xG 1.82–1.02
Sat 24 Octat AS Roma3–3xG 2.34–1.88
Tue 20 Octat Bodø / Glimt4–3xG 1.68–2.23
Sat 17 Octat Venezia FC0–1xG 2.42–1.05

LazioWWWWWD

Scored 19 · Conceded 8

Sun 1 Novat Cagliari Calcio2–1xG 1.31–1.27
Tue 27 Octat US Sassuolo6–2xG 3.26–0.64
Sat 24 Octat Parma Calcio2–1xG 1.89–0.80
Sun 18 Octat Juventus3–0xG 0.56–1.25
Sun 11 Octat AC Monza3–1xG 1.70–1.28
Sat 3 Octat SS Juve Stabia3–3

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Napoli: −0.40 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 10.57 xG, conceded 14 on 10.19 xG against.

Lazio: +1.50 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 16 on 8.72 xG, conceded 5 on 5.24 xG against.

Note: Napoli are underperforming against xG while Lazio are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Napoli win

39.7%

42.4%

42.2%

Draw

25.7%

26.4%

26.7%

Lazio win

34.5%

31.2%

31.0%

Napoli or draw

65.5%

—

69.0%

Napoli or Lazio

74.3%

—

73.2%

Draw or Lazio

60.3%

—

57.7%

Over 1.5 goals

75.3%

—

77.4%

Under 1.5 goals

24.7%

—

22.6%

Over 2.5 goals

50.9%

54.4%

54.3%

Under 2.5 goals

49.1%

45.6%

45.7%

Over 3.5 goals

28.8%

—

32.0%

Under 3.5 goals

71.2%

—

68.0%

Both teams to score

55.0%

—

58.0%

Not both teams to score

45.0%

—

42.0%

Napoli to score

75.6%

—

75.7%

Lazio to score

72.7%

—

67.9%

6.6%

8.6%

5.6%

2.4%

0.8%

0.2%

9.4%

12.2%

7.9%

3.4%

1.1%

0.3%

6.6%

8.6%

5.6%

2.4%

0.8%

0.2%

3.1%

4.1%

2.6%

1.1%

0.4%

0.1%

1.1%

1.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%