Major League SoccerCalibrated

Minnesota United vs SJ Earthquakes

Sunday 8 November at 07:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Minnesota United win	51.6%	57.0%	45.8%
Draw	21.4%	21.3%	24.5%
SJ Earthquakes win	26.9%	21.6%	29.7%
Minnesota United or draw	73.1%	—	70.3%
Minnesota United or SJ Earthquakes	78.6%	—	75.4%
Draw or SJ Earthquakes	48.4%	—	54.2%
Over 1.5 goals	86.0%	—	78.5%
Under 1.5 goals	14.0%	—	21.5%
Over 2.5 goals	67.2%	67.9%	56.5%
Under 2.5 goals	32.8%	32.1%	43.5%
Over 3.5 goals	45.5%	—	34.0%
Under 3.5 goals	54.5%	—	66.0%
Both teams to score	66.1%	—	58.3%
Not both teams to score	33.9%	—	41.7%
Minnesota United to score	86.9%	—	77.3%
SJ Earthquakes to score	76.0%	—	66.3%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 17:02 WIB · Pinnacle.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:25 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.1%	4.5%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.2%
1	6.4%	9.1%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
2	6.5%	9.3%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
3	4.4%	6.3%	4.5%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.2%	3.2%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
5	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

1.2–19.3%
2.1–19.1%
3.2–26.6%
4.1–26.5%
5.2–06.5%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.43. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Minnesota UnitedWWDWDD

Scored 13 · Conceded 8

Mon 2 Novat Los Angeles FC3–1xG 0.71–1.28
Thu 29 Octat Sporting KC3–1xG 2.32–0.80
Sun 25 Octat Houston Dynamo0–0xG 1.50–1.04
Sat 17 Octat St. Louis City3–2xG 2.71–1.48
Thu 15 Octat Colorado Rapids2–2xG 0.96–1.88
Sun 11 Octat Houston Dynamo2–2xG 1.53–1.60

SJ EarthquakesWDLDDD

Scored 7 · Conceded 9

Sat 31 Octat Real Salt Lake2–1xG 2.16–1.20
Thu 29 Octat Colorado Rapids2–2xG 2.71–1.01
Sun 25 Octat Dallas0–3xG 0.45–2.18
Sun 18 Octat Nashville SC1–1xG 1.03–0.49
Thu 15 Octat Real Salt Lake1–1xG 1.55–2.21
Sun 11 Octat Colorado Rapids1–1xG 0.98–1.30

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Minnesota United: +0.56 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 13 on 9.72 xG, conceded 8 on 8.08 xG against.

SJ Earthquakes: −0.42 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 8.89 xG, conceded 9 on 8.38 xG against.

Note: Minnesota United are overperforming against xG while SJ Earthquakes are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Minnesota United win

51.6%

57.0%

45.8%

Draw

21.4%

21.3%

24.5%

SJ Earthquakes win

26.9%

21.6%

29.7%

Minnesota United or draw

73.1%

—

70.3%

Minnesota United or SJ Earthquakes

78.6%

—

75.4%

Draw or SJ Earthquakes

48.4%

—

54.2%

Over 1.5 goals

86.0%

—

78.5%

Under 1.5 goals

14.0%

—

21.5%

Over 2.5 goals

67.2%

67.9%

56.5%

Under 2.5 goals

32.8%

32.1%

43.5%

Over 3.5 goals

45.5%

—

34.0%

Under 3.5 goals

54.5%

—

66.0%

Both teams to score

66.1%

—

58.3%

Not both teams to score

33.9%

—

41.7%

Minnesota United to score

86.9%

—

77.3%

SJ Earthquakes to score

76.0%

—

66.3%

3.1%

4.5%

3.2%

1.5%

0.5%

0.2%

6.4%

9.1%

6.5%

3.1%

1.1%

0.3%

6.5%

9.3%

6.6%

3.1%

1.1%

0.3%

4.4%

6.3%

4.5%

2.1%

0.8%

0.2%

2.2%

3.2%

2.3%

1.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.9%

1.3%

0.9%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%