EredivisiePartial

FC Twente vs AFC Ajax

Sunday 8 November at 20:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
FC Twente win	58.9%	42.2%	35.4%
Draw	21.5%	23.8%	21.0%
AFC Ajax win	19.6%	34.0%	43.6%
FC Twente or draw	80.4%	—	56.4%
FC Twente or AFC Ajax	78.5%	—	79.0%
Draw or AFC Ajax	41.1%	—	64.6%
Over 1.5 goals	88.1%	—	86.5%
Under 1.5 goals	11.9%	—	13.5%
Over 2.5 goals	69.2%	63.7%	68.7%
Under 2.5 goals	30.8%	36.3%	31.3%
Over 3.5 goals	47.8%	—	46.1%
Under 3.5 goals	52.2%	—	53.9%
Both teams to score	65.9%	—	66.5%
Not both teams to score	34.1%	—	33.5%
FC Twente to score	89.8%	—	72.3%
AFC Ajax to score	72.3%	—	77.6%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:29 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.8%	2.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
1	5.5%	9.3%	5.3%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
2	7.4%	9.4%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
3	5.6%	7.2%	4.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
4	3.2%	4.1%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
5	1.5%	1.9%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

1.2–19.4%
2.1–19.3%
3.2–07.4%
4.3–17.2%
5.2–26.1%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.28. Correlation -0.12.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league is partly calibrated — treat its numbers with care.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

FC TwenteWWWWLW

Scored 20 · Conceded 4

Thu 5 Novat Pafos FC3–1xG 4.52–0.53
Sun 1 Novat Excelsior9–0xG 5.55–0.00
Sun 25 Octat AZ Alkmaar2–0xG 2.39–1.06
Thu 22 Octat Lincoln Red Imps4–1xG 4.37–0.13
Sun 18 Octat FC Utrecht1–2xG 1.88–1.33
Thu 15 Octat Thun1–0xG 2.29–0.23

AFC AjaxWWWWWL

Scored 17 · Conceded 6

Thu 5 Novat FC Midtjylland6–1xG 3.34–1.46
Sat 31 Octat AZ Alkmaar1–0xG 0.82–1.77
Sun 25 Octat Sparta Rotterdam2–1xG 1.51–1.13
Thu 22 Octat Atalanta BC2–0xG 1.73–1.52
Sun 18 Octat FC Groningen5–2xG 3.21–2.25
Thu 15 Octat Hajduk Split1–2xG 1.75–1.52

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

FC Twente: −0.29 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 20 on 21.01 xG, conceded 4 on 3.28 xG against.

AFC Ajax: +1.38 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 17 on 12.36 xG, conceded 6 on 9.65 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

FC Twente win

58.9%

42.2%

35.4%

Draw

21.5%

23.8%

21.0%

AFC Ajax win

19.6%

34.0%

43.6%

FC Twente or draw

80.4%

—

56.4%

FC Twente or AFC Ajax

78.5%

—

79.0%

Draw or AFC Ajax

41.1%

—

64.6%

Over 1.5 goals

88.1%

—

86.5%

Under 1.5 goals

11.9%

—

13.5%

Over 2.5 goals

69.2%

63.7%

68.7%

Under 2.5 goals

30.8%

36.3%

31.3%

Over 3.5 goals

47.8%

—

46.1%

Under 3.5 goals

52.2%

—

53.9%

Both teams to score

65.9%

—

66.5%

Not both teams to score

34.1%

—

33.5%

FC Twente to score

89.8%

—

72.3%

AFC Ajax to score

72.3%

—

77.6%

3.8%

2.6%

2.3%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

5.5%

9.3%

5.3%

2.3%

0.7%

0.2%

7.4%

9.4%

6.1%

2.6%

0.8%

0.2%

5.6%

7.2%

4.6%

2.0%

0.6%

0.2%

3.2%

4.1%

2.6%

1.1%

0.4%

0.1%

1.5%

1.9%

1.2%

0.5%

0.2%

0.0%