Serie ACalibrated

Monza vs Atalanta

Sunday 8 November at 21:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Monza win	18.0%	28.4%	38.7%
Draw	18.2%	24.4%	26.4%
Atalanta win	63.8%	47.3%	34.9%
Monza or draw	36.2%	—	65.1%
Monza or Atalanta	81.8%	—	73.7%
Draw or Atalanta	82.0%	—	61.3%
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	—	80.9%
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	—	19.1%
Over 2.5 goals	71.5%	60.3%	59.0%
Under 2.5 goals	28.5%	39.8%	41.0%
Over 3.5 goals	50.6%	—	37.6%
Under 3.5 goals	49.4%	—	62.4%
Both teams to score	65.2%	—	62.4%
Not both teams to score	34.8%	—	37.6%
Monza to score	71.3%	—	75.0%
Atalanta to score	91.4%	—	72.0%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 9 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:29 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2.5%	6.1%	7.4%	6.1%	3.7%	1.8%
1	3.1%	7.6%	9.3%	7.6%	4.6%	2.3%
2	1.9%	4.7%	5.8%	4.7%	2.9%	1.4%
3	0.8%	2.0%	2.4%	2.0%	1.2%	0.6%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
5	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–29.3%
2.1–37.6%
3.1–17.6%
4.0–27.4%
5.0–36.1%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.25 – 2.45. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

MonzaLLLWLD

Scored 11 · Conceded 14

Sat 31 Octat Bologna FC1–2xG 1.83–2.22
Wed 28 Octat SSC Napoli1–4xG 1.02–1.82
Fri 23 Octat Torino FC2–3xG 0.38–1.39
Mon 19 Octat Cagliari Calcio4–0xG 1.39–2.05
Sun 11 Octat SS Lazio1–3xG 1.28–1.70
Sat 3 Octat Stade Brestois 292–2

AtalantaDLDDLL

Scored 9 · Conceded 15

Thu 5 Novat Kairat1–1xG 1.88–0.46
Mon 2 Novat Parma Calcio0–3xG 2.82–0.46
Thu 29 Octat ACF Fiorentina2–2xG 1.12–1.95
Sun 25 Octat Frosinone Calcio4–4xG 4.42–1.65
Thu 22 Octat AFC Ajax0–2xG 1.52–1.73
Sun 18 Octat AC Milan2–3xG 1.10–2.71

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Monza: +0.06 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 5 games: scored 9 on 5.90 xG, conceded 12 on 9.18 xG against.

Atalanta: −1.65 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 9 on 12.86 xG, conceded 15 on 8.95 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Monza win

18.0%

28.4%

38.7%

Draw

18.2%

24.4%

26.4%

Atalanta win

63.8%

47.3%

34.9%

Monza or draw

36.2%

—

65.1%

Monza or Atalanta

81.8%

—

73.7%

Draw or Atalanta

82.0%

—

61.3%

Over 1.5 goals

88.4%

—

80.9%

Under 1.5 goals

11.6%

—

19.1%

Over 2.5 goals

71.5%

60.3%

59.0%

Under 2.5 goals

28.5%

39.8%

41.0%

Over 3.5 goals

50.6%

—

37.6%

Under 3.5 goals

49.4%

—

62.4%

Both teams to score

65.2%

—

62.4%

Not both teams to score

34.8%

—

37.6%

Monza to score

71.3%

—

75.0%

Atalanta to score

91.4%

—

72.0%

2.5%

6.1%

7.4%

6.1%

3.7%

1.8%

3.1%

7.6%

9.3%

7.6%

4.6%

2.3%

1.9%

4.7%

5.8%

4.7%

2.9%

1.4%

0.8%

2.0%

2.4%

2.0%

1.2%

0.6%

0.3%

0.6%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%