Ligue 1Calibrated

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes

Sunday 8 November at 02:45 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Paris Saint-Germain win	87.9%	90.0%	—
Draw	8.6%	7.0%	—
Troyes win	3.6%	3.0%	—
Paris Saint-Germain or draw	96.4%	—	—
Paris Saint-Germain or Troyes	91.4%	—	—
Draw or Troyes	12.1%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	91.3%	—	—
Under 1.5 goals	8.7%	—	—
Over 2.5 goals	76.7%	74.4%	—
Under 2.5 goals	23.3%	25.6%	—
Over 3.5 goals	57.4%	—	—
Under 3.5 goals	42.6%	—	—
Both teams to score	45.8%	—	—
Not both teams to score	54.2%	—	—
Paris Saint-Germain to score	96.7%	—	—
Troyes to score	47.2%	—	—

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	5.8%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2	10.2%	6.5%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.5%	7.4%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.8%	6.3%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
5	6.7%	4.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1.3–011.5%
2.2–010.2%
3.4–09.8%
4.3–17.4%
5.5–06.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 3.40 – 0.64. Correlation -0.04.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Paris Saint-GermainWWWWWW

Scored 24 · Conceded 6

Tue 3 Novat Villarreal CF6–0xG 2.88–0.80
Fri 30 Octat Le Havre AC5–1xG 2.19–1.43
Mon 26 Octat Olympique Lyonnais2–0xG 1.51–0.90
Tue 20 Octat FC Barcelona4–2xG 2.86–2.23
Sat 17 Octat RC Strasbourg3–1xG 2.65–1.88
Wed 14 Octat Manchester City4–2xG 1.96–3.15

TroyesWDLLLD

Scored 5 · Conceded 9

Sat 31 Octat Le Mans2–0xG 1.59–0.26
Sun 25 Octat Toulouse FC0–0xG 0.55–0.83
Sat 17 Octat RC Lens1–3xG 1.04–1.75
Mon 12 Octat Olympique de Marseille0–2xG 1.06–1.30
Sun 11 Octat Olympique Marseille0–2xG 1.07–1.20
Fri 2 Octat Dijon2–2

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Paris Saint-Germain: +2.39 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 24 on 14.05 xG, conceded 6 on 10.41 xG against.

Troyes: −0.80 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 3 on 5.31 xG, conceded 7 on 5.33 xG against.

Note: Paris Saint-Germain are overperforming against xG while Troyes are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Paris Saint-Germain win

87.9%

90.0%

—

Draw

8.6%

7.0%

—

Troyes win

3.6%

3.0%

—

Paris Saint-Germain or draw

96.4%

—

Paris Saint-Germain or Troyes

91.4%

—

Draw or Troyes

12.1%

—

Over 1.5 goals

91.3%

—

Under 1.5 goals

8.7%

—

Over 2.5 goals

76.7%

74.4%

—

Under 2.5 goals

23.3%

25.6%

—

Over 3.5 goals

57.4%

—

Under 3.5 goals

42.6%

—

Both teams to score

45.8%

—

Not both teams to score

54.2%

—

Paris Saint-Germain to score

96.7%

—

Troyes to score

47.2%

—

1.9%

1.0%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

5.8%

4.0%

1.2%

0.3%

0.0%

10.2%

6.5%

2.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

11.5%

7.4%

2.4%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

9.8%

6.3%

2.0%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

6.7%

4.3%

1.4%

0.3%

0.0%