Premier LeagueCalibrated

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Sunday 8 November at 00:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Nottingham Forest win	27.7%	18.9%	22.4%
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	23.1%
Manchester City win	48.5%	57.0%	54.5%
Nottingham Forest or draw	51.5%	—	45.5%
Nottingham Forest or Manchester City	76.2%	—	76.9%
Draw or Manchester City	72.3%	—	77.6%
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	—	77.4%
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	—	22.6%
Over 2.5 goals	56.6%	58.7%	54.4%
Under 2.5 goals	43.4%	41.3%	45.6%
Over 3.5 goals	34.2%	—	32.0%
Under 3.5 goals	65.8%	—	68.0%
Both teams to score	58.2%	—	53.5%
Not both teams to score	41.8%	—	46.5%
Nottingham Forest to score	71.0%	—	58.0%
Manchester City to score	81.9%	—	81.1%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 1 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:21 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.2%	9.0%	7.7%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
1	6.5%	11.1%	9.5%	5.4%	2.3%	0.8%
2	4.0%	6.9%	5.9%	3.4%	1.4%	0.5%
3	1.7%	2.8%	2.4%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–111.1%
2.1–29.5%
3.0–19.0%
4.0–27.7%
5.2–16.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.71. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Nottingham ForestLDLLLW

Scored 4 · Conceded 9

Sat 31 Octat Brentford0–2xG 1.08–0.73
Fri 23 Octat Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.65–0.64
Sun 18 Octat Arsenal0–1xG 1.01–1.33
Sun 11 Octat Crystal Palace1–3xG 2.57–2.25
Sat 19 Septat Coventry City0–1xG 1.41–0.56
Sat 12 Septat Aston Villa2–1xG 2.27–1.06

Manchester CityWLLWWL

Scored 14 · Conceded 12

Wed 4 Novat RB Leipzig3–2xG 2.33–1.10
Sat 31 Octat Brighton & Hove Albion0–1xG 2.06–0.97
Sat 24 Octat Aston Villa1–2xG 1.79–0.66
Tue 20 Octat AEK Athens5–1xG 2.21–0.57
Sat 17 Octat Ipswich Town3–2xG 3.18–1.38
Wed 14 Octat Paris Saint Germain2–4xG 3.15–1.96

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Nottingham Forest: −1.57 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 4 on 10.98 xG, conceded 9 on 6.58 xG against.

Manchester City: −1.01 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 14 on 14.73 xG, conceded 12 on 6.64 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Nottingham Forest win

27.7%

18.9%

22.4%

Draw

23.8%

24.1%

23.1%

Manchester City win

48.5%

57.0%

54.5%

Nottingham Forest or draw

51.5%

—

45.5%

Nottingham Forest or Manchester City

76.2%

—

76.9%

Draw or Manchester City

72.3%

—

77.6%

Over 1.5 goals

79.3%

—

77.4%

Under 1.5 goals

20.7%

—

22.6%

Over 2.5 goals

56.6%

58.7%

54.4%

Under 2.5 goals

43.4%

41.3%

45.6%

Over 3.5 goals

34.2%

—

32.0%

Under 3.5 goals

65.8%

—

68.0%

Both teams to score

58.2%

—

53.5%

Not both teams to score

41.8%

—

46.5%

Nottingham Forest to score

71.0%

—

58.0%

Manchester City to score

81.9%

—

81.1%

5.2%

9.0%

7.7%

4.4%

1.9%

0.6%

6.5%

11.1%

9.5%

5.4%

2.3%

0.8%

4.0%

6.9%

5.9%

3.4%

1.4%

0.5%

1.7%

2.8%

2.4%

1.4%

0.6%

0.2%

0.5%

0.9%

0.8%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%