Ligue 1Calibrated

Stade Rennais vs Lille

Sunday 8 November at 21:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Stade Rennais win	40.8%	44.9%	53.8%
Draw	25.3%	25.4%	24.4%
Lille win	33.9%	29.8%	21.8%
Stade Rennais or draw	66.1%	—	78.3%
Stade Rennais or Lille	74.7%	—	75.6%
Draw or Lille	59.2%	—	46.2%
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	—	75.1%
Under 1.5 goals	20.0%	—	24.9%
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.7%	52.4%
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.3%	47.6%
Over 3.5 goals	34.4%	—	31.3%
Under 3.5 goals	65.6%	—	68.7%
Both teams to score	60.0%	—	52.8%
Not both teams to score	40.0%	—	47.2%
Stade Rennais to score	79.0%	—	80.2%
Lille to score	75.4%	—	56.7%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 5 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:29 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.6%	6.8%	5.1%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
1	7.6%	11.8%	7.9%	3.7%	1.3%	0.4%
2	6.3%	8.8%	6.2%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%
3	3.3%	4.6%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.3%	1.8%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–111.8%
2.2–18.8%
3.1–27.9%
4.1–07.6%
5.0–16.8%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.40. Correlation -0.04.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Stade RennaisDLWDLW

Scored 12 · Conceded 12

Wed 4 Novat Olympiacos F.C.0–0xG 0.76–0.89
Fri 30 Octat OGC Nice2–5xG 2.30–3.29
Sun 25 Octat RC Strasbourg3–0xG 1.70–0.84
Thu 22 Octat Juventus2–2xG 2.07–2.12
Sun 18 Octat Paris3–4xG 3.05–3.25
Thu 15 Octat OFI2–1xG 1.64–0.06

LilleDWDLDL

Scored 5 · Conceded 9

Tue 3 Novat Bodø / Glimt0–0xG 0.76–0.60
Fri 30 Octat RC Lens1–0xG 1.53–0.26
Sun 25 Octat AS Monaco1–1xG 0.45–2.45
Wed 21 Octat Galatasaray2–4xG 1.59–1.32
Sat 17 Octat Stade Brestois 291–1xG 2.08–0.52
Tue 13 Octat Arsenal0–3xG 0.30–1.77

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Stade Rennais: −0.17 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 11.51 xG, conceded 12 on 10.46 xG against.

Lille: −0.63 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 5 on 6.72 xG, conceded 9 on 6.92 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Stade Rennais win

40.8%

44.9%

53.8%

Draw

25.3%

25.4%

24.4%

Lille win

33.9%

29.8%

21.8%

Stade Rennais or draw

66.1%

—

78.3%

Stade Rennais or Lille

74.7%

—

75.6%

Draw or Lille

59.2%

—

46.2%

Over 1.5 goals

80.0%

—

75.1%

Under 1.5 goals

20.0%

—

24.9%

Over 2.5 goals

56.8%

58.7%

52.4%

Under 2.5 goals

43.2%

41.3%

47.6%

Over 3.5 goals

34.4%

—

31.3%

Under 3.5 goals

65.6%

—

68.7%

Both teams to score

60.0%

—

52.8%

Not both teams to score

40.0%

—

47.2%

Stade Rennais to score

79.0%

—

80.2%

Lille to score

75.4%

—

56.7%

5.6%

6.8%

5.1%

2.4%

0.8%

0.2%

7.6%

11.8%

7.9%

3.7%

1.3%

0.4%

6.3%

8.8%

6.2%

2.9%

1.0%

0.3%

3.3%

4.6%

3.2%

1.5%

0.5%

0.1%

1.3%

1.8%

1.3%

0.6%

0.2%

0.1%

0.4%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%