Ligue 1Calibrated

Le Mans vs AS Monaco

Sunday 8 November at 23:15 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Le Mans win	32.6%	19.9%	30.6%
Draw	22.0%	22.6%	26.2%
AS Monaco win	45.4%	57.5%	43.2%
Le Mans or draw	54.6%	—	56.9%
Le Mans or AS Monaco	78.0%	—	73.8%
Draw or AS Monaco	67.4%	—	69.4%
Over 1.5 goals	88.7%	—	74.1%
Under 1.5 goals	11.3%	—	25.9%
Over 2.5 goals	71.4%	58.7%	50.0%
Under 2.5 goals	28.6%	41.3%	50.0%
Over 3.5 goals	50.5%	—	27.9%
Under 3.5 goals	49.5%	—	72.1%
Both teams to score	70.9%	—	53.7%
Not both teams to score	29.1%	—	46.3%
Le Mans to score	81.5%	—	65.5%
AS Monaco to score	86.6%	—	74.4%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 12 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:32 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2.8%	4.6%	5.0%	3.4%	1.7%	0.7%
1	3.8%	8.7%	8.4%	5.7%	2.8%	1.1%
2	3.5%	7.1%	7.1%	4.8%	2.4%	1.0%
3	2.0%	4.0%	4.0%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%
5	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1.1–18.7%
2.1–28.4%
3.2–27.1%
4.2–17.1%
5.1–35.7%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.69 – 2.01. Correlation -0.04.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

Le MansLDLLLW

Scored 5 · Conceded 12

Sat 31 Octat ESTAC Troyes0–2xG 0.26–1.59
Sun 25 Octat AJ Auxerre1–1xG 1.19–0.91
Fri 16 Octat Toulouse FC0–3xG 1.36–1.68
Sat 10 Octat Paris Saint Germain1–3xG 1.44–3.83
Fri 2 Octat EA Guingamp1–2
Sat 19 Septat FC Lorient2–1xG 1.15–0.82

AS MonacoWLDWLW

Scored 9 · Conceded 6

Thu 5 Novat Nordsjælland2–0xG 1.88–0.12
Sun 1 Novat Paris1–3xG 1.14–1.95
Sun 25 Octat LOSC Lille1–1xG 2.45–0.45
Thu 22 Octat SC Freiburg3–0xG 1.51–1.51
Sun 18 Octat FC Lorient0–1xG 0.77–1.71
Thu 15 Octat CSKA Sofia2–1xG 1.27–1.17

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Le Mans: −0.52 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 4 on 5.40 xG, conceded 10 on 8.82 xG against.

AS Monaco: +0.15 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 9 on 9.02 xG, conceded 6 on 6.92 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Le Mans win

32.6%

19.9%

30.6%

Draw

22.0%

22.6%

26.2%

AS Monaco win

45.4%

57.5%

43.2%

Le Mans or draw

54.6%

—

56.9%

Le Mans or AS Monaco

78.0%

—

73.8%

Draw or AS Monaco

67.4%

—

69.4%

Over 1.5 goals

88.7%

—

74.1%

Under 1.5 goals

11.3%

—

25.9%

Over 2.5 goals

71.4%

58.7%

50.0%

Under 2.5 goals

28.6%

41.3%

50.0%

Over 3.5 goals

50.5%

—

27.9%

Under 3.5 goals

49.5%

—

72.1%

Both teams to score

70.9%

—

53.7%

Not both teams to score

29.1%

—

46.3%

Le Mans to score

81.5%

—

65.5%

AS Monaco to score

86.6%

—

74.4%

2.8%

4.6%

5.0%

3.4%

1.7%

0.7%

3.8%

8.7%

8.4%

5.7%

2.8%

1.1%

3.5%

7.1%

4.8%

2.4%

1.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2.7%

1.4%

0.5%

0.8%

1.7%

1.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.3%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%