Serie ACalibrated

Roma vs Sassuolo

Sunday 8 November at 02:45 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Roma win	72.4%	76.3%	71.2%
Draw	15.7%	14.2%	18.6%
Sassuolo win	12.0%	9.5%	10.2%
Roma or draw	88.0%	—	89.8%
Roma or Sassuolo	84.3%	—	81.4%
Draw or Sassuolo	27.6%	—	28.8%
Over 1.5 goals	87.9%	—	79.1%
Under 1.5 goals	12.1%	—	20.9%
Over 2.5 goals	70.5%	70.2%	58.0%
Under 2.5 goals	29.5%	29.8%	42.0%
Over 3.5 goals	49.5%	—	36.5%
Under 3.5 goals	50.5%	—	63.5%
Both teams to score	58.8%	—	48.0%
Not both teams to score	41.2%	—	52.0%
Roma to score	92.9%	—	88.5%
Sassuolo to score	63.3%	—	41.4%

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 7 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:23 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2.6%	2.6%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
1	6.9%	6.9%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
2	9.1%	9.1%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
3	8.0%	8.1%	4.0%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
4	5.3%	5.3%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
5	2.8%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1.2–19.1%
2.2–09.1%
3.3–18.1%
4.3–08.0%
5.1–16.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.65 – 1.00. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

RomaLWWDWW

Scored 20 · Conceded 10

Tue 3 Novat Manchester United2–3xG 1.28–2.23
Sat 31 Octat Udinese Calcio5–2xG 2.20–1.19
Tue 27 Octat Cagliari Calcio4–2xG 2.91–2.21
Sat 24 Octat SSC Napoli3–3xG 1.88–2.34
Tue 20 Octat Slovan Bratislava4–0xG 4.18–0.03
Sat 17 Octat Genoa CFC2–0xG 1.63–0.61

SassuoloLLLLDL

Scored 8 · Conceded 19

Mon 2 Novat ACF Fiorentina2–4xG 0.65–2.08
Tue 27 Octat SS Lazio2–6xG 0.64–3.26
Sat 24 Octat Como 19070–2xG 0.46–1.91
Fri 16 Octat Frosinone Calcio2–4xG 1.55–2.10
Sun 11 Octat AC Milan1–1xG 1.14–1.27
Fri 18 Septat AC Monza1–2xG 1.81–1.70

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Roma: +0.75 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 20 on 14.08 xG, conceded 10 on 8.60 xG against.

Sassuolo: −0.82 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 8 on 6.25 xG, conceded 19 on 12.32 xG against.

Note: Roma are overperforming against xG while Sassuolo are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Roma win

72.4%

76.3%

71.2%

Draw

15.7%

14.2%

18.6%

Sassuolo win

12.0%

9.5%

10.2%

Roma or draw

88.0%

—

89.8%

Roma or Sassuolo

84.3%

—

81.4%

Draw or Sassuolo

27.6%

—

28.8%

Over 1.5 goals

87.9%

—

79.1%

Under 1.5 goals

12.1%

—

20.9%

Over 2.5 goals

70.5%

70.2%

58.0%

Under 2.5 goals

29.5%

29.8%

42.0%

Over 3.5 goals

49.5%

—

36.5%

Under 3.5 goals

50.5%

—

63.5%

Both teams to score

58.8%

—

48.0%

Not both teams to score

41.2%

—

52.0%

Roma to score

92.9%

—

88.5%

Sassuolo to score

63.3%

—

41.4%

2.6%

1.3%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

6.9%

3.5%

1.2%

0.3%

0.1%

9.1%

4.6%

1.5%

0.4%

0.1%

8.0%

8.1%

4.0%

1.3%

0.3%

0.1%

5.3%

2.7%

0.9%

0.2%

0.0%

2.8%

1.4%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%