Ligue 1Calibrated

RC Lens vs Olympique de Marseille

Monday 9 November at 02:45 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
RC Lens win	51.8%	42.8%	—
Draw	22.1%	24.0%	—
Olympique de Marseille win	26.1%	33.2%	—
RC Lens or draw	73.9%	—	—
RC Lens or Olympique de Marseille	77.9%	—	—
Draw or Olympique de Marseille	48.2%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	86.2%	—	—
Under 1.5 goals	13.8%	—	—
Over 2.5 goals	66.9%	63.7%	—
Under 2.5 goals	33.1%	36.3%	—
Over 3.5 goals	45.2%	—	—
Under 3.5 goals	54.8%	—	—
Both teams to score	66.1%	—	—
Not both teams to score	33.9%	—	—
RC Lens to score	87.0%	—	—
Olympique de Marseille to score	75.6%	—	—

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3.5%	4.1%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%
1	6.1%	9.5%	6.4%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
2	6.6%	9.3%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
3	4.5%	6.3%	4.5%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.3%	3.2%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
5	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

1.1–19.5%
2.2–19.3%
3.2–06.6%
4.2–26.6%
5.1–26.4%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.41. Correlation -0.04.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

RC LensLLWLWL

Scored 6 · Conceded 17

Wed 4 Novat Como 19071–9xG 0.91–2.94
Fri 30 Octat LOSC Lille0–1xG 0.26–1.53
Sat 24 Octat Paris2–1xG 0.85–0.56
Wed 21 Octat Club Brugge0–3xG 1.94–2.65
Sat 17 Octat ESTAC Troyes3–1xG 1.75–1.04
Tue 13 Octat Sp Lisbon0–2xG 1.66–1.37

Olympique de MarseilleWWWWLL

Scored 14 · Conceded 8

Sun 1 Novat Toulouse FC2–0xG 1.29–1.90
Sun 25 Octat Le Havre AC4–3xG 1.54–3.10
Sun 18 Octat Angers SCO5–2xG 2.71–2.21
Mon 12 Octat ESTAC Troyes2–0xG 1.30–1.06
Mon 21 Septat Paris Saint Germain1–2xG 1.80–4.33
Sat 12 Septat Stade Rennais0–1xG 1.34–1.88

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

RC Lens: −1.38 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 6 on 7.37 xG, conceded 17 on 10.09 xG against.

Olympique de Marseille: +1.75 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 14 on 9.98 xG, conceded 8 on 14.48 xG against.

Note: RC Lens are underperforming against xG while Olympique de Marseille are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

RC Lens win

51.8%

42.8%

—

Draw

22.1%

24.0%

—

Olympique de Marseille win

26.1%

33.2%

—

RC Lens or draw

73.9%

—

RC Lens or Olympique de Marseille

77.9%

—

Draw or Olympique de Marseille

48.2%

—

Over 1.5 goals

86.2%

—

Under 1.5 goals

13.8%

—

Over 2.5 goals

66.9%

63.7%

—

Under 2.5 goals

33.1%

36.3%

—

Over 3.5 goals

45.2%

—

Under 3.5 goals

54.8%

—

Both teams to score

66.1%

—

Not both teams to score

33.9%

—

RC Lens to score

87.0%

—

Olympique de Marseille to score

75.6%

—

3.5%

4.1%

3.2%

1.5%

0.5%

0.1%

6.1%

9.5%

6.4%

3.0%

1.1%

0.3%

6.6%

9.3%

6.6%

3.1%

1.1%

0.3%

4.5%

6.3%

4.5%

2.1%

0.7%

0.2%

2.3%

3.2%

2.3%

1.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.9%

1.3%

0.9%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%