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LaLigaCalibrated
Monday 9 November at 03:00 WIB
| Pick | Model | Market | Sportmonks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 33.5% | 24.5% | — |
| Draw | 21.7% | 21.4% | — |
| Barcelona win | 44.8% | 54.1% | — |
| Atlético Madrid or draw | 55.2% | — | — |
| Atlético Madrid or Barcelona | 78.3% | — | — |
| Draw or Barcelona | 66.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.7% | 71.9% | — |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.3% | 28.1% | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.2% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 goals | 47.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | — | — |
| Not both teams to score | 28.1% | — | — |
| Atlético Madrid to score | 82.5% | — | — |
| Barcelona to score | 86.9% | — | — |
Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.
Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.
Home goals down, away goals across.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.
Expected goals 1.75 – 2.03. Correlation -0.03.
Ratings from primary_league.
This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.
This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.
Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.
Scored 10 · Conceded 2
Scored 21 · Conceded 10
Atlético Madrid: +0.79 per game vs xG — Overperforming.
Across 6 games: scored 10 on 9.45 xG, conceded 2 on 6.16 xG against.
Barcelona: +0.91 per game vs xG — Overperforming.
Across 6 games: scored 21 on 13.09 xG, conceded 10 on 7.57 xG against.
No picks recorded for this package
This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.