Premier LeagueCalibrated

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Sunday 8 November at 21:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Sunderland win	31.8%	24.6%	32.0%
Draw	24.2%	25.6%	24.5%
Chelsea win	43.9%	49.8%	43.5%
Sunderland or draw	56.1%	—	56.5%
Sunderland or Chelsea	75.8%	—	75.5%
Draw or Chelsea	68.2%	—	68.0%
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	—	79.1%
Under 1.5 goals	20.5%	—	20.9%
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	52.6%	56.6%
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	47.4%	43.4%
Over 3.5 goals	34.4%	—	34.1%
Under 3.5 goals	65.6%	—	65.9%
Both teams to score	59.2%	—	58.2%
Not both teams to score	40.8%	—	41.8%
Sunderland to score	73.9%	—	68.1%
Chelsea to score	80.2%	—	76.3%

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:29 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.2%	8.4%	6.8%	3.7%	1.5%	0.5%
1	7.0%	11.3%	9.1%	4.9%	2.0%	0.6%
2	4.7%	7.6%	6.1%	3.3%	1.3%	0.4%
3	2.1%	3.4%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
5	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1.1–111.3%
2.1–29.1%
3.0–18.4%
4.2–17.6%
5.1–07.0%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.62. Correlation 0.00.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the Sportmonks fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

SunderlandLLWDDL

Scored 5 · Conceded 10

Thu 5 Novat Dinamo Zagreb0–2xG 1.98–1.13
Sat 31 Octat Coventry City1–3xG 2.07–0.76
Wed 28 Octat Brentford3–2xG 1.99–2.81
Sun 25 Octat Leeds United0–0xG 1.03–1.11
Thu 22 Octat Lech Poznan1–1xG 2.33–2.13
Sun 18 Octat AFC Bournemouth0–2xG 0.08–3.25

ChelseaWLWWLD

Scored 11 · Conceded 8

Sat 31 Octat Manchester United2–0xG 2.44–1.12
Sat 24 Octat Tottenham Hotspur0–2xG 0.53–0.84
Sat 17 Octat Everton2–0xG 1.37–0.49
Sat 10 Octat AFC Bournemouth5–1xG 1.09–1.05
Fri 18 Septat Brentford0–3xG 0.89–2.13
Sat 12 Septat Hull City2–2xG 1.08–1.39

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Sunderland: −0.55 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 5 on 9.48 xG, conceded 10 on 11.19 xG against.

Chelsea: +0.43 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 11 on 7.40 xG, conceded 8 on 7.01 xG against.

Note: Sunderland are underperforming against xG while Chelsea are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Sunderland win

31.8%

24.6%

32.0%

Draw

24.2%

25.6%

24.5%

Chelsea win

43.9%

49.8%

43.5%

Sunderland or draw

56.1%

—

56.5%

Sunderland or Chelsea

75.8%

—

75.5%

Draw or Chelsea

68.2%

—

68.0%

Over 1.5 goals

79.5%

—

79.1%

Under 1.5 goals

20.5%

—

20.9%

Over 2.5 goals

56.8%

52.6%

56.6%

Under 2.5 goals

43.2%

47.4%

43.4%

Over 3.5 goals

34.4%

—

34.1%

Under 3.5 goals

65.6%

—

65.9%

Both teams to score

59.2%

—

58.2%

Not both teams to score

40.8%

—

41.8%

Sunderland to score

73.9%

—

68.1%

Chelsea to score

80.2%

—

76.3%

5.2%

8.4%

6.8%

3.7%

1.5%

0.5%

7.0%

11.3%

9.1%

4.9%

2.0%

0.6%

4.7%

7.6%

6.1%

3.3%

1.3%

0.4%

2.1%

3.4%

2.7%

1.5%

0.6%

0.2%

0.7%

1.1%

0.9%

0.5%

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%