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Serie ACalibrated
Sunday 8 November at 21:00 WIB
| Pick | Model | Market | Sportmonks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 24.6% | 19.6% | 27.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.6% | 25.8% |
| Milan win | 49.9% | 53.8% | 46.4% |
| Genoa or draw | 50.1% | — | 53.6% |
| Genoa or Milan | 74.4% | — | 74.2% |
| Draw or Milan | 75.4% | — | 72.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | 76.8% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.1% | — | 23.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 45.2% | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 54.8% | 46.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | — | 31.3% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73.1% | — | 68.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | — | 56.7% |
| Not both teams to score | 48.4% | — | 43.3% |
| Genoa to score | 64.5% | — | 64.7% |
| Milan to score | 79.5% | — | 77.7% |
Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.
Sportmonks panel Saturday 7 November at 17:29 WIB.
Home goals down, away goals across.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.59. Correlation -0.02.
Ratings from primary_league.
This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.
This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.
Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.
Scored 7 · Conceded 6
Scored 10 · Conceded 12
Genoa: +1.11 per game vs xG — Overperforming.
Across 5 games: scored 7 on 4.81 xG, conceded 4 on 7.37 xG against.
Milan: −0.26 per game vs xG — In line.
Across 6 games: scored 10 on 9.04 xG, conceded 12 on 9.48 xG against.
No picks recorded for this package
This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.