Super LigCalibrated

Rizespor vs Erzurumspor

Sunday 8 November at 17:30 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Rizespor win	56.4%	48.8%	—
Draw	29.0%	25.6%	—
Erzurumspor win	14.6%	25.6%	—
Rizespor or draw	85.4%	—	—
Rizespor or Erzurumspor	71.0%	—	—
Draw or Erzurumspor	43.6%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	61.5%	—	—
Under 1.5 goals	38.5%	—	—
Over 2.5 goals	33.4%	52.0%	—
Under 2.5 goals	66.6%	48.0%	—
Over 3.5 goals	15.0%	—	—
Under 3.5 goals	85.0%	—	—
Both teams to score	35.6%	—	—
Not both teams to score	64.4%	—	—
Rizespor to score	76.2%	—	—
Erzurumspor to score	45.4%	—	—

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 3 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14.0%	6.8%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	17.6%	12.3%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
2	13.4%	8.1%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	6.4%	3.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
4	2.3%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–017.6%
2.0–014.0%
3.2–013.4%
4.1–112.3%
5.2–18.1%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.44 – 0.60. Correlation -0.09.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

RizesporDLLLLW

Scored 8 · Conceded 11

Sat 31 Octat Kocaelispor0–0xG 2.17–0.72
Mon 26 Octat Trabzonspor3–4xG 1.53–2.59
Fri 16 Octat Corum FK1–2xG 0.86–1.09
Fri 16 Octat Corum1–2xG 0.84–0.71
Sat 10 Octat Fenerbahce0–3xG 1.67–1.23
Sat 3 Octat Boluspor3–0

ErzurumsporLWWDWL

Scored 7 · Conceded 7

Sat 31 Octat Corum1–3xG 0.59–1.22
Sat 24 Octat Gaziantep3–1xG 1.20–1.60
Sat 17 Octat Eyupspor2–0xG 1.29–0.43
Sat 10 Octat Alanyaspor0–0xG 1.69–0.98
Sun 20 Septat Samsunspor1–0xG 0.72–0.36
Fri 11 Septat Besiktas0–3xG 0.49–2.29

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Rizespor: −1.35 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 5 games: scored 5 on 7.07 xG, conceded 11 on 6.33 xG against.

Erzurumspor: +0.15 per game vs xG — In line.

Across 6 games: scored 7 on 5.98 xG, conceded 7 on 6.88 xG against.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Rizespor win

56.4%

48.8%

—

Draw

29.0%

25.6%

—

Erzurumspor win

14.6%

25.6%

—

Rizespor or draw

85.4%

—

Rizespor or Erzurumspor

71.0%

—

Draw or Erzurumspor

43.6%

—

Over 1.5 goals

61.5%

—

Under 1.5 goals

38.5%

—

Over 2.5 goals

33.4%

52.0%

—

Under 2.5 goals

66.6%

48.0%

—

Over 3.5 goals

15.0%

—

Under 3.5 goals

85.0%

—

Both teams to score

35.6%

—

Not both teams to score

64.4%

—

Rizespor to score

76.2%

—

Erzurumspor to score

45.4%

—

14.0%

6.8%

2.4%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

17.6%

12.3%

3.4%

0.7%

0.1%

0.0%

13.4%

8.1%

2.5%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

6.4%

3.9%

1.2%

0.2%

0.0%

2.3%

1.4%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%