Super LigCalibrated

Corum vs Fenerbahce

Sunday 8 November at 20:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Corum win	43.2%	22.1%	—
Draw	20.2%	23.7%	—
Fenerbahce win	36.6%	54.2%	—
Corum or draw	63.4%	—	—
Corum or Fenerbahce	79.8%	—	—
Draw or Fenerbahce	56.8%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	94.7%	—	—
Under 1.5 goals	5.3%	—	—
Over 2.5 goals	83.3%	59.0%	—
Under 2.5 goals	16.7%	41.0%	—
Over 3.5 goals	66.8%	—	—
Under 3.5 goals	33.2%	—	—
Both teams to score	81.0%	—	—
Not both teams to score	19.0%	—	—
Corum to score	90.7%	—	—
Fenerbahce to score	88.8%	—	—

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 4 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	1.5%	1.8%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%
1	2.0%	5.9%	5.9%	4.3%	2.4%	1.0%
2	2.9%	6.4%	7.0%	5.1%	2.8%	1.2%
3	2.3%	5.1%	5.6%	4.1%	2.2%	1.0%
4	1.4%	3.0%	3.3%	2.4%	1.3%	0.6%
5	0.7%	1.4%	1.6%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%

1.2–27.0%
2.2–16.4%
3.1–25.9%
4.1–15.9%
5.3–25.6%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 2.37 – 2.19. Correlation -0.09.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

CorumWLWWLW

Scored 14 · Conceded 7

Sat 31 Octat Erzurumspor3–1xG 1.22–0.59
Sun 25 Octat Goztepe0–2xG 0.56–2.00
Fri 16 Octat Rizespor2–1xG 0.71–0.84
Sun 11 Octat Gaziantep3–0xG 2.67–0.99
Sat 19 Septat Alanyaspor1–2xG 1.14–1.16
Sat 12 Septat Samsunspor5–1xG 1.73–1.24

FenerbahceWLLDWL

Scored 10 · Conceded 14

Wed 4 Novat Liverpool3–2xG 1.69–2.14
Sat 31 Octat Goztepe1–2xG 1.63–1.07
Mon 26 Octat Galatasaray1–2xG 0.49–2.12
Tue 20 Octat Slavia Praha2–2xG 1.10–1.32
Sat 17 Octat Alanyaspor3–0xG 4.14–0.75
Wed 14 Octat Aston Villa0–6xG 1.45–3.10

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Corum: +0.96 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 14 on 8.03 xG, conceded 7 on 6.82 xG against.

Fenerbahce: −0.67 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 10 on 10.51 xG, conceded 14 on 10.51 xG against.

Note: Corum are overperforming against xG while Fenerbahce are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Corum win

43.2%

22.1%

—

Draw

20.2%

23.7%

—

Fenerbahce win

36.6%

54.2%

—

Corum or draw

63.4%

—

Corum or Fenerbahce

79.8%

—

Draw or Fenerbahce

56.8%

—

Over 1.5 goals

94.7%

—

Under 1.5 goals

5.3%

—

Over 2.5 goals

83.3%

59.0%

—

Under 2.5 goals

16.7%

41.0%

—

Over 3.5 goals

66.8%

—

Under 3.5 goals

33.2%

—

Both teams to score

81.0%

—

Not both teams to score

19.0%

—

Corum to score

90.7%

—

Fenerbahce to score

88.8%

—

1.5%

1.8%

2.5%

1.8%

1.0%

0.4%

2.0%

5.9%

4.3%

2.4%

1.0%

2.9%

6.4%

7.0%

5.1%

2.8%

1.2%

2.3%

5.1%

5.6%

4.1%

2.2%

1.0%

1.4%

3.0%

3.3%

2.4%

1.3%

0.6%

0.7%

1.4%

1.6%

1.1%

0.6%

0.3%