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Liga PortugalCalibrated
Monday 9 November at 03:30 WIB
| Pick | Model | Market | Sportmonks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 10.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Draw | 15.0% | 14.0% | — |
| Benfica win | 74.2% | 77.9% | — |
| Estrela or draw | 25.8% | — | — |
| Estrela or Benfica | 85.0% | — | — |
| Draw or Benfica | 89.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 65.2% | — |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.4% | 34.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | — | — |
| Not both teams to score | 44.7% | — | — |
| Estrela to score | 59.7% | — | — |
| Benfica to score | 92.8% | — | — |
Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.
Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.
Home goals down, away goals across.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.
Expected goals 0.91 – 2.63. Correlation 0.02.
Ratings from primary_league.
This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.
This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.
Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.
Scored 6 · Conceded 11
Scored 16 · Conceded 4
Estrela: −0.96 per game vs xG — Underperforming.
Across 6 games: scored 6 on 7.10 xG, conceded 11 on 6.36 xG against.
Benfica: +0.42 per game vs xG — Overperforming.
Across 6 games: scored 16 on 15.16 xG, conceded 4 on 5.65 xG against.
Note: Estrela are underperforming against xG while Benfica are overperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.
No picks recorded for this package
This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.