Super LeagueCalibrated

Olympiakos vs PAOK

Monday 9 November at 02:00 WIB

Three sources

Pick	Model	Market	Sportmonks
Olympiakos win	50.8%	61.2%	—
Draw	27.7%	21.8%	—
PAOK win	21.5%	17.0%	—
Olympiakos or draw	78.5%	—	—
Olympiakos or PAOK	72.3%	—	—
Draw or PAOK	49.2%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	74.6%	—	—
Under 1.5 goals	25.4%	—	—
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	53.9%	—
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	46.1%	—
Over 3.5 goals	26.4%	—	—
Under 3.5 goals	73.6%	—	—
Both teams to score	51.5%	—	—
Not both teams to score	48.5%	—	—
Olympiakos to score	80.2%	—	—
PAOK to score	62.5%	—	—

Sources disagree by more than 10 points on 1 picks.

Market odds captured Saturday 7 November at 16:21 WIB · Pinnacle, Bet365.

Sportmonks panel Thursday 1 January at 07:00 WIB.

Likely scores

Home goals down, away goals across.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8.9%	5.9%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
1	10.6%	13.2%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
2	9.7%	9.5%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
3	5.2%	5.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	2.1%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1.1–113.2%
2.1–010.6%
3.2–09.7%
4.2–19.5%
5.0–08.9%

Shown 0–5 goals per side, from the full 11×11 matrix.

About these numbers

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.98. Correlation -0.12.

Ratings from primary_league.

This league passed calibration checks on held-out matches.

This fixture is served by the legacy divisional fit for its league.

Calculated Saturday 7 November at 21:33 WIB.

Last six

OlympiakosWWWWWL

Scored 12 · Conceded 3

Sat 31 Octat Kifisia3–2xG 1.00–1.57
Sun 25 Octat Kalamata5–0xG 2.78–0.35
Sun 18 Octat Panetolikos2–0xG 2.50–1.28
Mon 12 Octat Panathinaikos1–0xG 0.73–0.47
Sun 20 Septat Levadeiakos1–0xG 1.17–0.37
Sun 13 Septat OFI Crete0–1xG 1.38–0.87

PAOKWLLWWL

Scored 9 · Conceded 10

Sun 1 Novat Asteras Tripolis2–1xG 1.86–0.85
Sun 25 Octat OFI1–2xG 2.57–2.03
Sun 25 Octat OFI Crete1–2xG 2.20–2.79
Sun 18 Octat Iraklis 1908 FC2–1xG 2.06–0.73
Sun 18 Octat Iraklis2–1xG 2.02–0.78
Mon 12 Octat Kalamata1–3xG 1.65–1.74

Goals vs expected goals (xG)

Olympiakos: +0.72 per game vs xG — Overperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 12 on 9.56 xG, conceded 3 on 4.91 xG against.

PAOK: −0.74 per game vs xG — Underperforming.

Across 6 games: scored 9 on 12.35 xG, conceded 10 on 8.91 xG against.

Note: Olympiakos are overperforming against xG while PAOK are underperforming — recent results and the numbers disagree here.

Picks from this package

0 on record

No picks recorded for this package

This package was calculated before the pick engine wrote to the ledger, or no pick cleared the grade threshold.

Loading match analysis…

Pick

Model

Market

Sportmonks

Olympiakos win

50.8%

61.2%

—

Draw

27.7%

21.8%

—

PAOK win

21.5%

17.0%

—

Olympiakos or draw

78.5%

—

Olympiakos or PAOK

72.3%

—

Draw or PAOK

49.2%

—

Over 1.5 goals

74.6%

—

Under 1.5 goals

25.4%

—

Over 2.5 goals

48.1%

53.9%

—

Under 2.5 goals

51.9%

46.1%

—

Over 3.5 goals

26.4%

—

Under 3.5 goals

73.6%

—

Both teams to score

51.5%

—

Not both teams to score

48.5%

—

Olympiakos to score

80.2%

—

PAOK to score

62.5%

—

8.9%

5.9%

3.6%

1.2%

0.3%

0.1%

10.6%

13.2%

5.8%

1.9%

0.5%

0.1%

9.7%

9.5%

4.7%

1.5%

0.4%

0.1%

5.2%

5.1%

2.5%

0.8%

0.2%

0.0%

2.1%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%